A few weeks ago, if you said you wanted to open a short position on Bitcoin, everyone would probably give you a weird look ~_~ . But after President Trump announced the 100% tariff increase, and Bitcoin alone dropped over 15%, opening shorts these days doesn't seem so strange anymore.
Buyers were hoping for interest rate cuts, but even after a sharp drop, it looks like buyers still aren't interested in jumping in, and the bearish momentum is gaining strength. Let's start with an overall view from the weekly timeframe.
Bitcoin has held its HWC uptrend for about 1,000 days now, and if you look closely, it has never really penetrated its floors, while strongly respecting this curve line—until now, when it seems to be breaking it downward.
What does this show us? There's a high probability of a short-term price correction, and if we then break the lower highs and lows, our HWC uptrend would officially change, potentially leading to a drop as low as 45k. But I see the first scenario as more likely: just a daily correction, and then we'll be back in uptrend for the next couple of months, since the interest rate news is still pending, and that's expected to cause another drop. Plus, we haven't had an altseason yet—we've seen Bitcoin's growth, and it seems like it's over (I hope I'm wrong), but altseason hasn't happened, and BTC.D is still in uptrend, sitting above 60%.
We're at a very critical point in the market, so pay close attention to these three dominance and index metrics:
And finally, pair BTC with the specific altcoin you want to buy. For example, if you're checking Ethereum, you need to look at ETH/BTC too. If it's in uptrend, that's good; if not, be sure there's a better pair where more liquidity is flowing in. This is under the condition that the market has uptrend momentum. In the current conditions, I don't recommend buying altcoins at all.
Back to Bitcoin. Today, my short trigger activated after breaking 108,748.95, but I missed it because I was asleep:) We have a lot of liquidity in the 104k to 105k area, so it's best not to miss that. If we miss it, we'll go for the first scenario I mentioned—a correction on the daily timeframe. The next support levels would be 101k, 98k, and 91k. But if we get good support at 105k, personally, I'd look for a long trigger, even with very low risk, and I'd still follow it. Probably, we'll fake out around 105k and then form resistance—definitely open a long after the break.
Another possibility is that we fake out this 108,750 support break and head back up, in which case we'd trigger with a break of resistance at 111,480.36. I suggest you open it too, even with low risk—maybe risk 0.25% of your capital, but it's better to open because Bitcoin's uptrend rallies are usually very aggressive, and they don't give you much room for stop losses, so you get low R/R if you don't join with the first leg. So, it's better to have a position at the start of the uptrend, even with the lowest possible risk.
For shorts, there's no new trigger right now—let's wait for the market to give us a better structure.
Let's also check BTC.D:
it's in uptrend momentum, meaning as Bitcoin drops, liquidity is exiting altcoins, so altcoins are experiencing even bigger drops relative to Bitcoin. If you're looking for short triggers, altcoins are a much better option.
For longs, we need to wait and see if, with Bitcoin's rise, BTC.D also rises or not. If yes, open on Bitcoin alone; if not, split your risk between Bitcoin and an altcoin that has an uptrending BTC pair. If you think any part of what I said is unclear, raise it in the comments, and I'll explain.
Let's also take a look at Ethereum
its situation is similar to Bitcoin, with the difference that since its BTC pair(ETHBTC) is declining, it's dropped more than Bitcoin. It already passed its short trigger, but if you're really keen, if we rest a bit here for New York time, you can open a short with a break of support at 3,685.05, but with low risk because there's a ton of buy orders below this support, and it's not certain we'll pass it easily. An increase in volume at the break could help keep you safer from fake breaks.
For longs, Bitcoin is better right now, but if the second BTC.D scenario happens—Bitcoin rises, BTC.D drops, and ETH/BTC starts printing green candles—you can split your risk between BTC and ETH. It's best to have a BTC position anyway, since it's much safer.
And again, I say we're in a crucial geographic spot in the crypto market—stay vigilant and take capital management seriously. I'm sure many got liquidated after Bitcoin's 15% drop and got wiped out of the market because they didn't manage capital and risk. I say this because the day after the drop, I lost 15 followers too :) lol :).
Alright, get outta here.
Buyers were hoping for interest rate cuts, but even after a sharp drop, it looks like buyers still aren't interested in jumping in, and the bearish momentum is gaining strength. Let's start with an overall view from the weekly timeframe.
Bitcoin has held its HWC uptrend for about 1,000 days now, and if you look closely, it has never really penetrated its floors, while strongly respecting this curve line—until now, when it seems to be breaking it downward.
What does this show us? There's a high probability of a short-term price correction, and if we then break the lower highs and lows, our HWC uptrend would officially change, potentially leading to a drop as low as 45k. But I see the first scenario as more likely: just a daily correction, and then we'll be back in uptrend for the next couple of months, since the interest rate news is still pending, and that's expected to cause another drop. Plus, we haven't had an altseason yet—we've seen Bitcoin's growth, and it seems like it's over (I hope I'm wrong), but altseason hasn't happened, and BTC.D is still in uptrend, sitting above 60%.
We're at a very critical point in the market, so pay close attention to these three dominance and index metrics:
And finally, pair BTC with the specific altcoin you want to buy. For example, if you're checking Ethereum, you need to look at ETH/BTC too. If it's in uptrend, that's good; if not, be sure there's a better pair where more liquidity is flowing in. This is under the condition that the market has uptrend momentum. In the current conditions, I don't recommend buying altcoins at all.
Back to Bitcoin. Today, my short trigger activated after breaking 108,748.95, but I missed it because I was asleep:) We have a lot of liquidity in the 104k to 105k area, so it's best not to miss that. If we miss it, we'll go for the first scenario I mentioned—a correction on the daily timeframe. The next support levels would be 101k, 98k, and 91k. But if we get good support at 105k, personally, I'd look for a long trigger, even with very low risk, and I'd still follow it. Probably, we'll fake out around 105k and then form resistance—definitely open a long after the break.
Another possibility is that we fake out this 108,750 support break and head back up, in which case we'd trigger with a break of resistance at 111,480.36. I suggest you open it too, even with low risk—maybe risk 0.25% of your capital, but it's better to open because Bitcoin's uptrend rallies are usually very aggressive, and they don't give you much room for stop losses, so you get low R/R if you don't join with the first leg. So, it's better to have a position at the start of the uptrend, even with the lowest possible risk.
For shorts, there's no new trigger right now—let's wait for the market to give us a better structure.
Let's also check BTC.D:
it's in uptrend momentum, meaning as Bitcoin drops, liquidity is exiting altcoins, so altcoins are experiencing even bigger drops relative to Bitcoin. If you're looking for short triggers, altcoins are a much better option.
For longs, we need to wait and see if, with Bitcoin's rise, BTC.D also rises or not. If yes, open on Bitcoin alone; if not, split your risk between Bitcoin and an altcoin that has an uptrending BTC pair. If you think any part of what I said is unclear, raise it in the comments, and I'll explain.
Let's also take a look at Ethereum
its situation is similar to Bitcoin, with the difference that since its BTC pair(ETHBTC) is declining, it's dropped more than Bitcoin. It already passed its short trigger, but if you're really keen, if we rest a bit here for New York time, you can open a short with a break of support at 3,685.05, but with low risk because there's a ton of buy orders below this support, and it's not certain we'll pass it easily. An increase in volume at the break could help keep you safer from fake breaks.
For longs, Bitcoin is better right now, but if the second BTC.D scenario happens—Bitcoin rises, BTC.D drops, and ETH/BTC starts printing green candles—you can split your risk between BTC and ETH. It's best to have a BTC position anyway, since it's much safer.
And again, I say we're in a crucial geographic spot in the crypto market—stay vigilant and take capital management seriously. I'm sure many got liquidated after Bitcoin's 15% drop and got wiped out of the market because they didn't manage capital and risk. I say this because the day after the drop, I lost 15 followers too :) lol :).
Alright, get outta here.
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Penerbitan berkaitan
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.