BITCOIN’S PUMP BEFORE THE DUMP — CRYPTO ABOUT TO CRASH

1 Okt

TRADERS, WE ARE STARING RIGHT INTO THE EYE OF THE STORM. BITCOIN’S “TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE” RALLY IS BEING PROPPED UP BY LEVERAGED PERPS, NOT REAL SPOT BUYING. THE CHART IS SCREAMING EXHAUSTION: AVWAP BANDS COLLIDING, ORDER FLOW MAXED OUT WITH AGGRESSIVE LONGS, AND A DANGEROUS IMBALANCE AROUND 118K. THIS IS THE PERFECT BREEDING GROUND FOR A MEGA LONG SQUEEZE THAT WILL NOT ONLY RIP THROUGH BITCOIN BUT DRAG THE ENTIRE CRYPTO MARKET DOWN WITH IT. THE PUMP IS THE TRAP. THE DUMP IS LOADING



TLDR;

This leg looks futures-driven, not spot-backed. We’re pushing into AVWAP outer-band confluence with imbalances near 118k while leveraged longs pile in. Base case: sweep the mid-Sept Weak High, fail, rotate down toward 104k (and maybe 98.5k). I’ll flip only if spot CVD takes the lead and price accepts above the AVWAP band cluster.

Why I think the “mega long squeeze” is loading
1) Who’s actually buying? (Spot CVD vs Futures CVD)

• Spot CVD: still negative/underwhelming across the push → real buyers (spot) aren’t lifting.
  
• Futures CVD (stablecoin-margined): rising with Open Interest → perps are doing the heavy lifting.
  
• Translation: Leverage is pushing price, not genuine spot accumulation. These moves are fragile and unwind hard when OI compresses.
  

2) AVWAP confluence (the auction math)

• I’m tagging anchored VWAPs from opposing pivots (swing low→high and swing high→low).
  
• The outer bands from these anchors are overlapping in the same zone → both bottom-anchored longs see it as expensive (profit-taking), and top-anchored shorts defend their break-even.
  
• That overlap = double-sided supply. Historically, these reject unless fresh spot demand blows through (which we don’t have… yet).
  
• Still have bad September lows that are likely to be swept at 107k~
  

3) 118k imbalance

• There’s an inefficient push / imbalance around 118k. Thin structure often gets tapped/swept, then mean-reverts if the follow-through is purely leveraged.
  

4) Order flow is too aggressive (late longs)

• OI up + positive delta into resistance = new longs chasing.
  
• On footprint, you can see buy-side aggression meeting absorption near the top of the move. That’s classic trap fuel if we print an SFP.
  

Trade idea (conceptual, not financial advice)

Base case path (bearish):

• ✅ Sweep the Weak High (mid-Sept) into 117.8–118.8k (imbalance + AVWAP band confluence).
  
• ✅ Print a Swing-Fail Pattern (SFP) / rejection wick on 5–15m with:
  
• Spot CVD NOT confirming (stays flat/negative),
  
• OI spikes while delta stalls (late longs absorbed).
  
• Short after the reclaim/failure back below the swept high; stop above the SFP high.
  

Targets / magnets:

• 113.2–114.1k (0.382 zone / local AVWAP midlines)
  
• 111.3k (0.5 retrace / prior balance edge)
  
• 109.9–109.3k (weekend low / prior node)
  
• 106.0–104.9k (SP + LVN cluster, high-prob test area)
  
• Stretch: 103.5k (4H single print) → 98.5k if liquidation cascade extends.
  

validation / flip criteria:

• Acceptance above the AVWAP outer-band cluster and 118.8k with:
  
• Spot CVD turning positive and making higher highs,
  
• OI stable or down on further upside (less leverage dependence).
  

If that happens, I stand down on the short idea and reassess for continuation

1 Okt

Dagangan aktif

1 Okt

Nota

Check the Aggregated CVD and Open Interest data here: ibb.co/RTmhZB0V
Check the OrderFlow of Binance Perpetuals here: ibb.co/KpL4wVh8

7 hari lalu

Nota

Nothing much has changed yet. Spot CVD is still relatively low. Mostly leveraged positions piling in. I'm expecting a wick into 120k before we potentially dump.

7 hari lalu

Nota

My idea is still very valid.

Price just keeps building the trap. Once the bid dries up, liquidation cascade brings price down fast.

5 hari lalu

Nota

Price extended all the way towards the 1.1618 - higher than expected. However, I'm still betting on a big squeeze downwards once the bid dries up.