BTC/USDT Technical Analysis
Timeframe: 15-minute (Binance Spot)
Composite Bias: 🟢 Bullish
Key Levels
Immediate Support: $103,450 (Previous swing low + ATR-based floor)
Secondary Support: $103,000 (Psychological level + oversold RSI recovery zone)
Resistance: $104,200 (Local high, MACD convergence point)
Breakout Target: $104,500 (Measured move from recent consolidation)
Technical Rationale
MACD Bearish Crossover (Signal line > MACD, histogram negative) suggests short-term pullback risk, but RSI at 59.9 (neutral) leaves room for recovery.
ATR at 156.89 reflects elevated volatility; often a precursor to directional moves.
Volume & Structure
Volume is below average during the latest uptick, raising concerns about rally sustainability (Quant Team flags this as a low-conviction move).
Price was rejected at $103,960 after an earlier RSI dip to 7.7, confirming aggressive dip-buying interest.
Macro Context
Despite the bearish MACD crossover, trend strength score at 0.23 suggests weak downside momentum.
Earlier extreme oversold RSI (<10) is often followed by sharp reversals in BTC.
Risk Advisory (Compliance Division)
False Breakout Risk: Low volume on upticks increases the chance of traps — confirm any breakout with ≥0.5x average volume.
Macro Sensitivity: Fed policy uncertainty remains a headwind; monitor correlations with equities.
Liquidity Gaps: Thin order books between $103,800–$104,200 may amplify volatility.
Actionable Insight
Entry: $103,500–$103,600 (retest of support confluence)
Stop-Loss: Below $103,300 (1.5x ATR buffer)
Take-Profit: Partial at $104,200 if volume confirms.
Emphasize asymmetric reward/risk if $103,000 holds, but await volume confirmation before high-conviction entry.
Timeframe: 15-minute (Binance Spot)
Composite Bias: 🟢 Bullish
Key Levels
Immediate Support: $103,450 (Previous swing low + ATR-based floor)
Secondary Support: $103,000 (Psychological level + oversold RSI recovery zone)
Resistance: $104,200 (Local high, MACD convergence point)
Breakout Target: $104,500 (Measured move from recent consolidation)
Technical Rationale
MACD Bearish Crossover (Signal line > MACD, histogram negative) suggests short-term pullback risk, but RSI at 59.9 (neutral) leaves room for recovery.
ATR at 156.89 reflects elevated volatility; often a precursor to directional moves.
Volume & Structure
Volume is below average during the latest uptick, raising concerns about rally sustainability (Quant Team flags this as a low-conviction move).
Price was rejected at $103,960 after an earlier RSI dip to 7.7, confirming aggressive dip-buying interest.
Macro Context
Despite the bearish MACD crossover, trend strength score at 0.23 suggests weak downside momentum.
Earlier extreme oversold RSI (<10) is often followed by sharp reversals in BTC.
Risk Advisory (Compliance Division)
False Breakout Risk: Low volume on upticks increases the chance of traps — confirm any breakout with ≥0.5x average volume.
Macro Sensitivity: Fed policy uncertainty remains a headwind; monitor correlations with equities.
Liquidity Gaps: Thin order books between $103,800–$104,200 may amplify volatility.
Actionable Insight
Entry: $103,500–$103,600 (retest of support confluence)
Stop-Loss: Below $103,300 (1.5x ATR buffer)
Take-Profit: Partial at $104,200 if volume confirms.
Emphasize asymmetric reward/risk if $103,000 holds, but await volume confirmation before high-conviction entry.
Dagangan aktif
Following the original outlook, BTC/USDT dipped to $101,383, forming a potential double bottom with strong wick rejection, now rebounding toward $103,000.Confirmed Support: $101,383 (aggressive buyer absorption + volume spike)
MACD: Histogram turning positive; bearish momentum fading
RSI: Room for bullish continuation
Key Level Now: $103,450 — flip of this zone into support would confirm structural reversal
🟢 Bias Maintained: Cautiously Bullish, contingent on $103,000 holding as support and a volume-backed reclaim of $103,450.
Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai
📘 BTC/USDT Trade Closed – Target ReachedTrade Setup:
Entry Zone: $103,500–$103,600
Target: $104,200
Stop-Loss: Below $103,300 (not triggered)
Outcome:
🎯 Take-Profit Target Hit – Price reached $104,200 cleanly after confirmation above $103,450. No stop-loss triggered.
Performance Notes:
Entry followed retest of support + momentum shift (MACD histogram recovery, RSI reversal)
Volume remained moderate but trend structure held
Price respected technical levels with strong follow-through from double-bottom confirmation at $101,383
✅ Trade closed successfully in line with plan. No post-entry invalidation. Target fully achieved.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.