$BTC: BEGINNING OF THE END?

16 Mac 2021

𝐁𝐓𝐂 𝐇𝐀𝐒 𝐅𝐋𝐀𝐆𝐆𝐄𝐃 𝐀 𝐁𝐄𝐀𝐑𝐈𝐒𝐇 𝐃𝐈𝐕𝐄𝐑𝐆𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄 𝐎𝐅 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐃𝐀𝐈𝐋𝐘 𝐂𝐇𝐀𝐑𝐓 - 𝐀𝐑𝐄 𝐖𝐄 𝐀𝐁𝐎𝐔𝐓 𝐓𝐎 𝐂𝐑𝐀𝐒𝐇?

For 6 months, this rising channel has given a strong framework for BTC to regulate it's growth. However, we are now flagging 3 consecutive higher highs on price; with 3 lower highs on RSI. So surely, we are about to crash - right?

Unfortunately it's not so simple. If it were, we'd all be rich.

While a price/RSI divergence is a VERY good indicator of change in sentiment; it does not represent a timeline of change. And because BTC is an incredibly volatile asset, it does not take much to bring positive sentiment back to an already bullish market. So here are some simple rules we will be using for tracking the end of the market:

• The Channel: Is the price inside the channel? Yes? We are still bullish.
  
• Volume: OBV should be falling consistently (volume is exiting) & daily volume should be increasing. We are looking for an acceleration out of the market - because this is a good indicator that the sentiment has fully shifted.
  
• RSI: There needs to be room on the downside.
  

Right now, we have 1 out of 3 indicators. And we aren't even close to breaking the channel.

#crypto

25 Mac 2021

Nota

What a difference a week makes. We have now broken through the bottom of the +/- 2 deviation channel. RSI is down into the 40s; which has been it's RSI low point for most of the channel.

We have increased the channel bands to +/- 3 to account for the volatility; but for more conservative traders - we now have 2 of the 3 warning indicators.