Everyone’s Short on CAD… But This Is Why I’m Going Long

📊 CAD/CHF – August 4th, 2025 | Tactical Long Bias

🔹 Technical Outlook
The daily chart shows:
Strong bullish reaction within a weekly demand zone (0.5800–0.5830), confirmed by multiple lower wicks → growing buying pressure.
Weekly RSI bouncing out of oversold → potential mid-term reversal signal.
Structure may be shifting with a first target at 0.5950 (intermediate zone) and second target at 0.6000–0.6030 (major supply).
Recent bullish engulfing broke out of inside candle sequence → active technical trigger.

🧠 Commitment of Traders (COT) – July 29
Non-Commercials:
CAD: Aggressive increase in shorts (+3,888) and reduction in longs (-2,222) → heavily bearish speculative positioning.
CHF: Increase in longs (+936) and decrease in shorts (-1,095) → net bullish sentiment on CHF.
📌 However, CAD’s overstretched short positioning may lead to technical short-covering, especially if CHF starts to lose momentum.

📈 Seasonality – August
CHF: Range-bound or weak in August across all timeframes (20y, 15y, 10y).
CAD: Mild seasonal strength in August, especially on the 2y and 5y outlook.
➡️ Seasonal bias supports a tactical long on CAD/CHF during the first half of August.

✅ Trading Outlook
📌 Tactical Bias: LONG
🎯 First Target: 0.5950 → mid-level reaction zone.
🛑 Invalidation: below 0.5800 (demand breakdown).
🧠 Confluences: demand zone + RSI reversal + extreme COT positioning + seasonal support.