CAKE / TetherUS
Panjang

CAKE/USDT Weekly — Time to Break the Multi-Year Downtrend Curse?

602
Full Analysis

CAKE/USDT is now at one of the most critical points since the 2021 bear market began. Price is currently around $2.87, touching the multi-year downtrend line that has acted as a ceiling for more than three years.

From the chart, we can see:

📉 Downtrend Line: Originating from the 2021 all-time high, connecting multiple lower highs. It’s a major resistance that has never been broken since the decline started.

📊 Layered Resistance Zones: $3.46 → $4.19 → $4.76, followed by major resistances at $10.04 and $12.85.

📈 Strong Support Zones: $2.20 (minor support), $1.60, and the historical low at $1.05.

⏳ Consolidation Range: Since 2023, price has mostly moved sideways — potentially signaling quiet accumulation before a major move.

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Pattern & Context

The current market structure shows:

1. Compression / Pressure Convergence: Downtrend line meets strong horizontal support → often a trigger for either a breakout or a sharp rejection.


2. Potential Breakout Setup: A weekly close above the trendline + key level $3.45–$3.50 could mark the start of a bullish reversal.


3. Bearish Continuation Risk: Failure to break out and a rejection from this zone could resume the long-term downtrend channel toward previous lows.

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Bullish Scenario 🟢

Trigger: Weekly close above $3.50 + strong breakout volume.

Target 1: $4.19 → psychological and horizontal resistance.

Target 2: $4.76 → a historical supply zone.

Mid-term Target: $10.04 → a key historical resistance; breaking it could open the way to $12.85 and even $24.76 (in case of a strong market-wide bullish cycle).

Extra Confirmation: RSI > 55–60, MACD bullish cross on the weekly timeframe.

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Bearish Scenario 🔴

Trigger: Rejection at the trendline + weekly close below $2.70.

Target 1: $2.20 → intra-range support.

Target 2: $1.60 → previous major support from 2022–2023.

Final Target: $1.05 → historical low, possible liquidity grab in a panic sell.

Extra Confirmation: Long upper wicks, increasing selling volume, RSI failing to cross above 50.

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Strategy & Risk Management

Breakout Traders: Wait for a confirmed weekly close above $3.50 before entering, with stops below the swing low or trendline.

Rejection Traders: Look for false breakout signals at the trendline to short with targets at lower supports.

Position Sizing: Risk only 1–3% per trade.

Multi-TF Confirmation: Check daily and 4H charts to validate breakout/rejection setups.

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Conclusion

📍 CAKE is at a make-or-break point — will this be the start of a major trend reversal or a continuation of the long-standing downtrend? Medium- and long-term traders should closely watch the weekly close this week.
🚨 A breakout here could reshape the entire trend map — but beware of potential fakeouts that are common at such key moments.

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> CAKE/USDT is testing a multi-year downtrend line after 3 years of pressure. A weekly close above $3.50 could open the path to $4.19–$4.76, and even $10+. A rejection here risks a drop to $2.20 or $1.05. This could be the start of a major trend change — or the biggest trap of the year.

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