649bruno
Singkat

Light Crude Oil Reversal: Two Sell Fractals On 15 Minute Chart

NYMEX:CL1!   Hadapan Minyak Mentah Ringan
155 1 8
This morning I commented that Light-Crude-Oil was likely to rally to 44.28.
This would be a 50% retracement . My comments this morning were....
The 15 minute chart I looked at was slightly rising, but the strength of the trend was neutral, not strong. I looked for any new buy fractals on the 15-30-45 minute charts and saw none. When I looked at a one hour, two hour, and then a three hour chart, all had valid sell fractals at 43 even, and the strength of the down-trend ( choppiness indicator) was well below 38.2, indicating strong down-trend action is very likely to resume. My best analysis would be an up move to between 44.03 / 44.28. At these points I would search for a valid sell fractal on the 15 minute chart. I would then confirm by looking at phase energy and momentum indicators (rolling over), and CHOP, to see if the anticipated trend reversal was strong, or weak. (End of recap).
Light-Crude reversed at 44.67, which was a Fibonacci . 618 retracement .
There are many sell signals.
1. Sell Fractals in effect (rectangles on chart). I prefer sell candles outside of the alligator jaw (not just below teeth), but the 1-3-5 minute charts have all reversed.
2. Alligator jaws CLOSING in tandem with sell Fractal . Now it will likely reverse and feed in down-trend.
3. Chop indicator (under chart) (indicates a trend or choppy action) is NOT below the 38.2 shaded area. THE SHORT TERM UP-TREND WAS NOT STRONG.
4. Phase energy (lower top indicator) is heading lower (multiple consecutive red bars and the action is heading BELOW the zero line).
5. Momentum (middle top indicator) is the 5/34 measure, and this is heading DOWN.
6. Prices are trading below the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line.
8. Prices are trading below the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud .
9. The trend-line is heading down (thick golden line just above the Ichimoku Cloud ).

What I am looking for now is a confirmation of the two sell fractals. The third sell fractal confirmation would have to be in tandem with falling phase energy, a continuation of the alligator feeding in the down-trend, and, ideally, the CHOP (indicator under chart) would be heading lower. This would indicate the new down-trend would be getting stronger.
Good luck to you in all your trades. Don.
great analysis and explanations. thanks
Balas
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