Math isn't mathing! Long $CNC for earnings

22 Jul

- I'm taking contrarian stance on CNC as fears are overdone.
- CNC has cash in hand around14 billion and market cap is around 13.5 billion.
- I call bullshit on the market. Math isn't mathing.
- Company isn't going bankrupt. There are headwinds but they will navigate the headwinds and return capital to investors.
- This is not a startup coming out of no where. It has 2 decades of experience navigating difficult times than this in the past be it GFC, Dot Com crash, Covid crash or other bureaucratic hurdles.

22 Jul

Nota

In a bear-case worst scenario (policy cuts plus execution missteps leading to near-breakeven profits), perhaps the stock could drift lower into the low $20s or high teens – but that would imply near bankruptcy valuations for a company still doing ~$150B in revenue

22 Jul

Nota

- P/S is 0.08
- Better than feared report will lead to huge short covering rally.

23 Jul

Nota

- There huge risk to the upside rather than the downside as market participants are too pessimistic and pricing CNC as if it is going bankrupt.

- Please note that CNC makes real revenue and net income in billions. The headwinds are just challenges they will have to navigate which they most likely are going to address via hiking premiums.

23 Jul

Nota

- Closing above 7 SMA would be nice :)

24 Jul

Nota

- Sold pre market at 29.xx for 5% was expecting overreaction by market participants
- Bought back CNC at 27.xx after 7% pull back

24 Jul

Nota

Implied volatility is +/-9% for tomorrow's earnings

24 Jul

Nota

The way market is selling CNC they need to absolutely come tomorrow and tell that they are going out of business. So many cry babies in the markets.

25 Jul

Nota

$23.26 should serve as some support if you look at the declines levels on the left.

25 Jul

Nota

Glad that I had deep in the money covered calls for my shares to protect from the downside and switched to long dated call option for enjoying any upside

25 Jul

Nota

CEO calmed investors and assured long term fiscal targets in tact. Repricing strategy 2026 is coming

3 Ogo

Nota

- $23.26 should be the bottom. At these levels, it's undervalued fundamentally and stock is priced for bankruptcy.
- Potential upside 60-100% in next 2 years

4 Ogo

Nota

Bottoming in process!
- Dowside risks << Upside risk
- Worth buying some good chunks in 23-27 range

15 Ogo

Nota

CNC : Time for mean reversion! $35+ before the year end and next year well above $40

18 Ogo

Nota

- Bearish to bullish CNC let's go!

- This company was priced for bankruptcy! This company makesb profit in billions

29 Ogo

Nota

- CNC is ticking time bomb. We are getting close to 2026 and re-pricing of policies is coming which will lead to improvements in margin and profitability.

31 Ogo

Nota

CNC is making bull flag. Hopefully 35+ soon

3 Sep

Nota

CNC closed above $30 bucks on September 3, 2025

9 Sep

Nota

- Consolidation and building momentum today on September 9, 2025
- shorting CNC currently is fuel to the fire.
- Easy re-rating story for 2026.

9 Sep

Nota

- Please note that if thought UNH was undervalued then CNC is double undervalued plus rocket fuel because CNC market cap is quite low and CNC is also increasing premiums starting next year. I believe CNC has potential for faster 2x

22 Sep

Nota

Aren't you guys tired of winning?

if not, follow for more action before it happens!

28 Sep

Nota

Gap fill trade for CNC in 2026

28 Sep

Nota

PT > $54 before year end 2026