MCX Crude Oil: Complex Correction Complete?

19 Jun

Big Picture Structure — Daily Timeframe
After peaking at 9996, Crude Oil entered a prolonged complex corrective phase, unfolding as a W-X-Y-X-Z structure, reflecting a Elliott Wave complex correction pattern.

• Wave W formed via an initial abc decline.
  
• Wave X delivered a corrective bounce.
  
• Wave Y unfolded into another abc leg down.
  
• A second X followed, creating further complexity.
  
• Finally, Wave Z completed with a terminating abc decline, bottoming near 4724.
  

With this, the entire larger degree Wave 4 correction appears to have completed, setting the stage for a potential higher-degree advance.

Zoom In — 4H Timeframe Analysis
Zooming into the rally from 4724, price action unfolds very cleanly:

• A strong 5-wave impulsive advance has developed.
  
• Wave 3 displayed strong extension — a healthy sign of impulsive strength.
  
• Wave 5 pushed to a higher high near 6585, completing a likely Wave (1) at smaller degree.
  

Notably, the final leg of this upmove developed with RSI bearish divergence, often an early warning of short-term exhaustion, suggesting a corrective Wave (2) pullback may now be developing.


Outlook Ahead

• With higher degree Wave 4 likely behind us, attention shifts to the ongoing development of the larger degree Wave 5.
  
• A corrective Wave (2) pullback may offer attractive entry zones for the next bullish impulsive leg.
  
• As long as price maintains structural integrity above the 4724 low, the broader bullish outlook remains intact.
  

Summary

• Complex W-X-Y-X-Z correction likely complete.
  
• New bullish sequence underway.
  
• Short-term corrective pullback (Wave 2) anticipated.
  
• RSI divergence signals caution for immediate upside, but larger bullish trend remains intact.
  

Chart will be updated as price action evolves.

Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.

23 Jun

Nota

We might have our wave(1) in place and wave(2) is underway. Probable target zones for wave(2): 0.382 and 0.5 fib levels are marked, or it might even retrace quite deep. The price might also want to fill the gap. Once we have wave(2) in place, wave(3) can be very explosive rally on the up. Crude oil rallying up may not be a good sign for some equities. But important for now is to wait for the end of wave(2).