Rolling over again, now breaking the 253 (1 year) day moving average after testing it in April and again in May... The 66 day (1 quarter) moving average is pointing down and the price is rejecting it on the last rally. 41 is the level where the least amount of trading has occurred in DAL shares, so that means this is where buyers are supposed to be. I think, however, that the buyers are already "IN" the stock and we can see a slow bleed from this level and grind down to the 36-33-30 level over the next 6-9 months. If Walmart is rolling over, so will Delta. Walmart leads the way. If anything, consider going long Walmart (very cheap in this recession) and short Delta.
Be prepared to sell short on rallies back to 41-42 after a push down to $39.50 support (from high volume - see volume profile on right side of chart). Stop loss levels are 44 and 45. 42-43 is the lowest risk level to sell short with the tightest stop, but the safest trade is when DAL is falling and weak since it is more likely to trigger stops and keep falling. So, ideally we want to push through 41 and get down to 39.50 and have a bounce, then reject 41 and push down through 39.50 to set up the move to 36-33-30. Updates to follow.
Tim DAL 41.45 last 10:40AM EST June 8, 2015
Komen
timwest
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I threw into the analysis a quip about "this recession" to see if anyone had a comment.
Nickfg8105f
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Doubt it goes below 39/40 support zone....strong buybacks and strong fundamentals. What does Walmart have to do with DAL ?
timwest
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I find that the two have a loose connection, whereby one leads the way and the other follows. They both are in the consumer/retail business, so they are related, again, in a loose way. If a recession hits, you are more likely to stop flying than stop buying basics at Walmart, but either way you will cut back spending.
timwest
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If you owned DAL and WMT from 2007 until now, you would have had very different experiences. With Walmart you barely suffered any loss along the way before chugging ahead by 50% now and you've received 2.5% dividend yield each year +/-. With DAL, you had to suffer an 80% loss of your capital before going up 80% (without dividends). So, the fact that DAL is up huge from the lows of 2008-2011 is only because it recovered from near death. I think most people that look at airline stocks today miss this longer term perspective.