This trading idea is not published to predict any result about the upcomming election in France or Netherlands.
Trader can use this information to be up to date and to compare the market bias with latest polls.
General elections are planned to be held in the Netherlands on Wednesday, 15 March 2017 to elect all 150 members of the House of Representatives.
Since 2002, every cabinet has resigned before completing their full four-year term and five elections were held between 2002 and 2012. The 2012 elections saw the Labour Party (PvdA) and People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) go head-to-head for the position of prime minister, gathering enough seats in the process to form an absolute majority. The VVD's Mark Rutte formed a coalition government with the PvdA, ousting the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) from government, while the Party for Freedom (PVV) went back to full opposition
The market consus view was until Jan 20th 2017 (Donald Trumps Inauguration) that Geert Wilders ultra far right anti Muslim and Anti EU Party PVV will win the Dutch Election by landslide. Rapidly but "silent" the far right Party PVV approval rates in the Netherlands deteriorate. What might suprise as well is that until now almost each available source is telling, that Geert Wilders is going to win the Dutch election.
This articel was published on FEB 2017 in UK:
Quote: The anti-Islam leader of the Dutch far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) is on course to win the most seats at the general election in March. His election would be the latest blow for Europe’s liberal order in the wake of the Donald Trump’s victory and the Brexit vote.Mr Wilders has pledged to close the Netherlands’ borders, shut down mosques and leave the euro and EU if he gets into power. Source: http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/754516/Dutch-election-2017-will-Geert-Wilders-win-latest-polls-Netherlands-election
This article below was written about the french election. If you follow the fact´s than you can anticipate that Anglo Saxon Investors also do not fully understand the mechanics of the Dutch elections. Similar tothe France election for example some left wing Green Party voters likely now going to vote for the conservative Premier Rutte - only to avoid any victory for Gert Wilders.
FEB 18 2017 "The Anglo Saxon world does not fully understand the mechanics of French elections"
Quote: One French hedge fund manager said he was relaxed about the election outcome, with Ms Le Pen considered a long shot in scenarios that require an unexpected turn of events, such as support for Mr Macron crumbling.
“The only way for the Front National to gain power is to secure more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round,” said Renaud Champion, head of credit at La Française GIS. “The Anglo Saxon world does not fully understand the mechanics of French elections.” Source: https://www.ft.com/content/0f1fdff6-f469-11e6-95ee-f14e55513608
What most traders missed to follow up is the reaction of the Dutch Stockmarket since January 20th (Trump Inauguration). Since this date Wilders PVV lost at least 25% of likely voters. The Dutch Stockmarket follows this excately. Most Traders don´t now about this issue.
Latest Dutch Opinion Polls: On Feb 23 Wilders PVV is now second only.
Story telling like this backfires European far right parties. U.S. and U.K. Traders underestimate how this is going to affect all European Elections. European Voters trun away from far right parties wich all supporting Donald Trump.
PVV (Wilders): 29 Seats
VVD (Dutch Prime Minister Rutte): 25 Seats
Wilders PVV still lost 25% from last years highes approval likely to win 37 Seats. Source and more informations here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
PVV: 22 Seats likely (PVV: Geert Wilders far right anti-Muslim anti EU party)
VVD: 22 Seats likely (VVD: Dutch Prime Minister Rutte)
Todays reading of 22 Seats (from 150) is the lowest number for Geert Wilders since 2015. In June 2016 Wilders PVV would had won 37 (!) seats. this is a loss of 15 seats or allmost 40%. Germany´s far right wing party AfD is showing exactely same numbers. In summer 2016 the AfD was noticed with up to 18 % of likely voters. Latest polls showing 8,5% or a loss of up to 50% of likely voters. The drops excallerates after Donald Trumps Inauguration on Jan. 20th 2017.
FEB 28 2017: Another sharp loss for Wilders far right party PVV:
PVV: 22 Seats likely (PVV: Geert Wilders far right anti-Muslim anti EU party)
VVD: 25 Seats likely (VVD: Dutch Prime Minister Rutte)
The drops excallerates after Donald Trumps Inauguration on Jan. 20th 2017.
PVV 25 Seats
VVD 24 Seats
The Dutch election was wide open going into the last full week of campaigning, as support for the populist message of Geert Wilders declined and Prime Minister Mark Rutte failed to pick up the balance.
PVV 24 Seats
VVD 25 Seats.
Do not underestimate the markets view about stockmarkets action
Quote: he French presidential election is grabbing all the headlines in Europe, but another contest may serve as an indicator for France's election — and Europe's future.
The Netherlands is scheduled to hold a general election on March 15, and right now the race is a dead heat between Geert Wilders — leader of the populist Party of Freedom (PVV) — and incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who leads the more moderate People's Party for Freedom (VVD).
Markets will be watching the Dutch contest not just to get a sense of who may win the French election, but to gauge the likelihood of the European Union's disintegration.
"That could be the canary in the coal mine," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities, referring to the Dutch election. "This could be a preview of what could happen in the French election."
Dutch populist Geert Wilders' popularity seems to be diminishing among the Netherlands electorate as his chances of an outright victory appear to be hampered by U.S. President Donald Trump's protectionist agenda.
With just over a week to go until the Netherlands general election, the leader of the anti-immigration Party for Freedom (PVV) is now running neck and neck with Prime Minister Mark Rutte's Liberals, according to a Peil.nl poll published Sunday.
"I can only speculate, but I think a negative Trump effects is at play," Holger Sandte, chief European analyst at Nordea, told CNBC in an email Tuesday.
PVV: 23 Seats
VVD: 25 Seats
PVV: 20 Seats
VVD: 24 Seats
It´s on the frontpage of Germany largest newspaper: Trump backfires European far right parties: http://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/europa/rechtspopulisten-im-umfragetief-ist-trump-schuld-50657154,view=conversionToLogin.bild.html
Dutch Populist Geert Wilders Is Lagging in the Polls Due to the 'Trump Effect'
Dutch Populist Wilders Feels Trump Burn With Slide in Polls
Todays numbers telling diffrent story:
PVV: 23 Seats (had 38 in June 2016)
VVD: 26 Seats
Number of seats to win next wednesday:
PVV: 22 (Netherlands far right party, Geert Wilders, hould had won 38 in June 2016)
Turkey dispute timing may benefit Dutch premier in election
Wilders anti muslim and anti EU Party: 16 seats (had 37 in June 2016 opinion polls).
Wilders PVV now back to same number of seats like in last election and 5th strongest Dutch party only. If ever this would be confirmed by the elections tomorrow this would mean a huge miss for Wilders an also a huge miss for all U.S. Investors betting on rising populism in Europe.
Two votes had been won by populists: The Brexit and the U.S. Election. Now lets have a look, how the latest approval rates are for Donald Trump:
MAR 30 2017: Majority of Americans think Trump's doing a poor job and the country is headed in the wrong direction: Poll
Trump's approval rating slips to another new low, much lower than resent presidents at this point in their terms