Hi, do you remember me? I've followed all your ideas about this whole move for some time, especially as I agree that it's all possible. But, it's taken much, much longer to play out, which makes it very difficult to trade. This seems to be how the markets work. They frustrate you for so long until you give up, and then the move takes place. I don't know if you've been holding short positions, especially on the indices like the Dow? But, it would take some nerve to do so. If the plunge takes place many will miss getting in early because it is dragging out. The Dow looks to be topping in a long drawn out way, I'm wondering if one last high? My guess is that a recession will come in 2021, as Lagarde suggested she hoped for '7' good years in 2014. The economy and markets are rigged, and 7 is an obsession for these people. Markets usually lead the way, so I expect markets to fall before 2021, but is it possible to do so a year or more before a recession? I think your ideas are correct, but I'm still not sure of the timing and the cause. I'm not sure why you think DB is so important? Do you think it will collapse and lead to problems with other banks? Do you know something about DB that others don't commonly know? My only ideas have been about negative interest rates possibly causing a run on banks in the Euro area, as people will start to lose money by having money deposited in banks. Some German banks are starting to pass on negative interest rates to ordinary customers. Money that ordinary people have will be devalued.
By the way, regarding the EUR/GBP situation, I have been following GBP/CZK. GBP looks like it needs to do another leg down against USD, but for EUR/GBP to go down there needs to be a big fall in the Euro, larger than that of GBP. CZK has been a very strong currency but it tends to be relatively closely linked to the Euro. GBP/CZK is at an interesting level. To me, it looks as if any move higher from here, then the downtrend is over, which means the Euro and therefore CZK will definitely fall as you predict. Do you have any thoughts on GBP/CZK by looking at charts? I feel sure that if GBP moves higher against CZK in the next few days that the Euro will go down as you have long predicted.
AesopsHare
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@Tarder, If you haven't already - do a search for Deutsche Bank on youtube and there are a variety of explanations as to why "DB is so important"..
Obviously its not technical analysis, so slightly off topic for Trading View; (there is also a lot of questionable, or mis-information on youtube), but the general sentiment is that it has disproportionately vast liabilities that it will never be able to resolve. Try "The Money GPS" for some softcore DB doom-porn!