🔍Technical Analysis
Deepak Nitrite Limited has experienced a super bullish rally over the past decade, transforming from below ₹100 to reaching ₹3,000 by October 2021 - representing an impressive 30x growth in just 10 years. However, the stock has since entered a prolonged consolidation and correction phase.
The ₹3,000-₹3,200 zone acted as formidable resistance twice, while the ₹1,700-₹1,800 zone provided strong support multiple times over the past few years. This created a well-defined trading range that held for an extended period.
Critical Development: The stock has now broken below the crucial ₹1,700-₹1,800 support zone and is currently trading at ₹1,625. This breakdown is technically significant and suggests the market has entered bearish sentiment.
Analyzing the Profit & Loss statements over the past 4 years reveals a concerning trend - while sales show positive year-on-year growth, EPS has been declining consistently (from ₹62.47 in FY23 to ₹51.12 in FY25), indicating margin compression and profitability challenges.
Current Recommendation: No buying opportunities at current levels. Wait for the stock to reclaim and sustain above ₹2,000 before considering long positions.
💰FY25 Financial Highlights (vs FY24 & FY23)
Deepak Nitrite faces significant headwinds despite strategic capacity expansion initiatives. The company reported Q4 FY25 PAT of ₹202 crore (down 20% YoY) with full-year FY25 PAT at ₹697 crore, reflecting a 14% decline from FY24's ₹811 crore. Revenue grew modestly by 8% to ₹8,282 crore, but profitability deteriorated due to persistent margin pressures.
The challenging Q3 FY25 witnessed PAT plummeting 51.5% YoY to ₹98 crore as the company faced a "perfect storm" of idled plants due to deferred demand, elevated raw material costs, and lower realizations. EBITDA margins contracted sharply to 7% in Q3 from 12.8% in Q2 FY25, indicating severe profitability challenges.
Market cap has declined 42.8% in one year to ₹21,258 crore, with the stock falling from 52-week high of ₹3,168.60 (August 2024) to 52-week low of ₹1,962.50 (February 2025). Prabhudas Lilladher downgraded the stock with 'Reduce' rating and ₹2,582 target price, citing commodity-driven business challenges.
Despite headwinds, the company is investing heavily in capacity expansion with ₹2,000 crore capex in FY25 for MIBK, MIBC, nitric acid, and enhanced nitration capabilities. Additionally, ₹8,500 crore investment is planned for polycarbonate resin production, positioning for long-term growth in material sciences.
Management expects profitability rebound from Q4 FY25 onwards with new projects commissioning and backward-forward integration providing operational resilience. The company has entered medium-term supply agreements aligning with expanded capacity and completed cost improvement initiatives for agrochemicals and dye intermediates.
✅Conclusion
Deepak Nitrite's decade-long bull run from sub-₹100 to ₹3,000 faces significant reversal with support breakdown to ₹1,625. Declining EPS trend (₹62.47 in FY23 to ₹51.12 in FY25) despite revenue growth signals persistent margin compression from elevated input costs and competitive pressures. The 42.8% market cap decline and analyst downgrades reflect bearish sentiment. While ₹2,000 crore FY25 capex and ₹8,500 crore polycarbonate investment provide long-term visibility, near-term challenges persist. Technical breakdown below ₹1,700-₹1,800 support suggests avoiding fresh positions until stock reclaims ₹2,000 level with sustained volume confirmation.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. Stock markets are subject to risks.
Deepak Nitrite Limited has experienced a super bullish rally over the past decade, transforming from below ₹100 to reaching ₹3,000 by October 2021 - representing an impressive 30x growth in just 10 years. However, the stock has since entered a prolonged consolidation and correction phase.
The ₹3,000-₹3,200 zone acted as formidable resistance twice, while the ₹1,700-₹1,800 zone provided strong support multiple times over the past few years. This created a well-defined trading range that held for an extended period.
Critical Development: The stock has now broken below the crucial ₹1,700-₹1,800 support zone and is currently trading at ₹1,625. This breakdown is technically significant and suggests the market has entered bearish sentiment.
Analyzing the Profit & Loss statements over the past 4 years reveals a concerning trend - while sales show positive year-on-year growth, EPS has been declining consistently (from ₹62.47 in FY23 to ₹51.12 in FY25), indicating margin compression and profitability challenges.
Current Recommendation: No buying opportunities at current levels. Wait for the stock to reclaim and sustain above ₹2,000 before considering long positions.
💰FY25 Financial Highlights (vs FY24 & FY23)
- Total Income: ₹8,282 Cr (↑ +8% YoY from ₹7,682 Cr; ↑ +4% from FY23 ₹7,972 Cr)
- Total Expenses: ₹7,187 Cr (↑ +10% YoY from ₹6,555 Cr; ↑ +8% from FY23 ₹6,680 Cr)
- Financial Profit: ₹1,095 Cr (↓ -3% YoY from ₹1,127 Cr; ↓ -15% from FY23 ₹1,292 Cr)
- Profit Before Tax: ₹953 Cr (↓ -14% YoY from ₹1,102 Cr; ↓ -17% from FY23 ₹1,146 Cr)
- Profit After Tax: ₹697 Cr (↓ -14% YoY from ₹811 Cr; ↓ -18% from FY23 ₹852 Cr)
- Diluted EPS: ₹51.12 (↓ -14% YoY from ₹59.45; ↓ -18% from FY23 ₹62.47)
Deepak Nitrite faces significant headwinds despite strategic capacity expansion initiatives. The company reported Q4 FY25 PAT of ₹202 crore (down 20% YoY) with full-year FY25 PAT at ₹697 crore, reflecting a 14% decline from FY24's ₹811 crore. Revenue grew modestly by 8% to ₹8,282 crore, but profitability deteriorated due to persistent margin pressures.
The challenging Q3 FY25 witnessed PAT plummeting 51.5% YoY to ₹98 crore as the company faced a "perfect storm" of idled plants due to deferred demand, elevated raw material costs, and lower realizations. EBITDA margins contracted sharply to 7% in Q3 from 12.8% in Q2 FY25, indicating severe profitability challenges.
Market cap has declined 42.8% in one year to ₹21,258 crore, with the stock falling from 52-week high of ₹3,168.60 (August 2024) to 52-week low of ₹1,962.50 (February 2025). Prabhudas Lilladher downgraded the stock with 'Reduce' rating and ₹2,582 target price, citing commodity-driven business challenges.
Despite headwinds, the company is investing heavily in capacity expansion with ₹2,000 crore capex in FY25 for MIBK, MIBC, nitric acid, and enhanced nitration capabilities. Additionally, ₹8,500 crore investment is planned for polycarbonate resin production, positioning for long-term growth in material sciences.
Management expects profitability rebound from Q4 FY25 onwards with new projects commissioning and backward-forward integration providing operational resilience. The company has entered medium-term supply agreements aligning with expanded capacity and completed cost improvement initiatives for agrochemicals and dye intermediates.
✅Conclusion
Deepak Nitrite's decade-long bull run from sub-₹100 to ₹3,000 faces significant reversal with support breakdown to ₹1,625. Declining EPS trend (₹62.47 in FY23 to ₹51.12 in FY25) despite revenue growth signals persistent margin compression from elevated input costs and competitive pressures. The 42.8% market cap decline and analyst downgrades reflect bearish sentiment. While ₹2,000 crore FY25 capex and ₹8,500 crore polycarbonate investment provide long-term visibility, near-term challenges persist. Technical breakdown below ₹1,700-₹1,800 support suggests avoiding fresh positions until stock reclaims ₹2,000 level with sustained volume confirmation.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. Stock markets are subject to risks.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.