ChartArt

Cycle periods when to make money on the US stock market

DJ:DJI   Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average
1450 32 5
Summary: Buy stocks in the year 2020-2022 with sell target 25000 in the year 2026

The trend trajectory for the DOW Industrial index is starting to get very bearish in the year 2017 at the latest. A time when Donald Trump might have become the next US president, which would strongly influence the world history.

After a sharp three year decline of the stock market from the highs of the year 2015-2016 a bottom for the large downtrend of the year 2017 might be near during or shortly after the year "2020". Two years later a very strong new rally could start in the year 2022 when the "DOW" could move back above 19000 points. This rally could last at least until the year 2026 where 25000 points could be reached on the "DOWI".

Worth reading:
The 56 Year Benner Cycle, "Periods when to make money" illustration by George Tritcht (1897)
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/the-56-year-benner-cycle/
"http://www.davidmcminn.com/pages/brenfib.htm"
http://visualoop.com/blog/6694/vintage-infodesign-16

"The 2021 major bottom cycle would be correspondent to the 1949 major low before the big bull move until the 1960's." - The Benner-Fibonacci Cycle Model
http://jogarembolsa.blogspot.com/2009/09/1920s-dow-versus-2000s-nasdaq.html

Economic Confidence Model (ECM)
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/7219-2

P.S. I hope Tradingview exists for so long that we can follow the accuracy of this chart over the next decade :)

P.P.S . As of publishing this chart the DOWI             is below 16400 points (at 16398). If the chart gets messed up, here is a screenshot:
snapshot
In my original outlook in January 2016 I shared that the year 2017 might be a peak and that the year 2020 might be a low.

I came across similar research results which were published in August 2016 by Ahmed Farghaly. His cycle-based outlook for 2017 has been wrong in hindsight (he was only bullish for Q1 2017 and Q2 2017), but due to the similar forecast I wanted to share this nonetheless. Ahmed wrote: "The volatility projection suggests that the crash is likely to be drastic going into the low that is expected in 2020 which is when peak volatility is expected."

https://time-price-research-astrofin.blogspot.com/2016/08/djia-bullish-into-new-year-cyclic.html
Balas
Eric Hadik has discovered a 40-year cycle in the US stock market and he is afraid that 2017 could be multi-year peak, with consequences (resulting ‘reactions’) which would be more strongly felt and recognized until the year 2021.


Quote: "In each phase, there have been remarkably similar events and battles (mostly economic/financial battles but the overarching 80-Year Cycle has also timed America’s most challenging and culture-shaping military battles as well – next coming into play in 2021) – all of which included struggles with currency (paper/fiat & hard/metals), investments (stocks, bonds & others), food (crop crises) & the overall economy (bubbles, panics, crashes, recessions & depressions)."

http://40yearcycle.com/pages/featured-2-pages/decennial-danger-period/


While not a perfect match, Hadik also mentioned the "overarching 80-year cycle" as being related to his 40-year cycle discovery, which is a very rough match with Brad Gudgeon's 88-year human generation cycle discovery (44-year cycle when halved) and Sandy Jadeja's 84-year cycle discovery (42-year cycle when halved).
Balas
ChartArt ChartArt
I found out why Harry Dent has been so bearish in 2016 for the year 2017. He also uses the 80-year cycle:

Quote: "(...) another cycle I use: the 80-Year Four Season Economic Cycle" (...) "Central banks have done more damage than simply delaying the downturn.", "We are now preparing for a shakeout more painful than anything we’ve seen before. We have years of unprecedented government stimulus and money creation to thank for stretching this bubble beyond imagination and making the burst more painful than anything we’ve ever experienced… "

https://dentresearch.com/archives/sale-lifetime-great-bubble-burst-2017-can-make-rich/


Harry Dent has also written very bullish stock market related books in the past like "The Roaring 2000s" (published 1998) and "The Next Great Bubble Boom" (published 2004), so he is not a perma-bear.
Balas
Barry Bannister, Senior Equity Strategist at Stifel, sees a stock market peak in the year 2018.

"The main theme of Bannister’s outlook puts a target for the S&P 500 at 2,500 in 2017, followed by a top in 2018 and a bear market the year after. " (as of March 2017)

"Bannister’s forecast of a market peak and economic slowdown starting in 2018 is largely based on the idea that we are three years into a Fed tightening cycle when looking at the “Shadow Fed Funds rate.”

https://www.financialsense.com/barry-bannister/2018-stock-market-peak


Here is a 30-minute interview with him (from March 2017, released in July 2017)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWz_UzawPsM




Balas
In my comments here I mentioned the 17-year cycle (there are two different versions by Eric Hadik and Kerry Balenthiran). Interestingly there is also research into a 18-year real estate cycle, which is due to peak and pop since around the year 2016 (+/-)

http://time-price-research-astrofin.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-skyscraper-indicator-1790-2015.html

Balas
Astro-finance also points to a major stock market decline around 2019-2025:

"A scientific paper by Charles J. Collins points out one simple correlation of solar-stock market movements that will, fortunately, come to another test within the two or three years ahead "

http://time-price-research-astrofin.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-effect-of-sunspot-activity-on-stock.html
http://time-price-research-astrofin.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-sunspot-cycle-and-stocks-robert-r.html

"Statistically speaking, the current sunspot Cycle 24 is scheduled to draw to a close sometime in 2019."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-sten-odenwald/waiting-for-the-next-suns_b_11812282.html
Balas
I discovered another cycle which points to a major decline in either 2018 or 2019, but not in the year 2017:

Quote:

"The four-year Presidential cycle has been used for quite a long time in anticipating major market lows. Since the year 1938 it has worked quite well. The cycle suggests a significant stock market low occurs in the second year of every President’s term (...) A new President just entered the White House in 2017. With the market at all-time highs, and a significant low having just occurred in 2016, it is quite unlikely his first year will see another significant low. The most likely target year for a significant low would be next year, 2018, his second year in office. If a significant low does not occur next year either. Then a significant market top should occur in the year 2019, his third year in office.

https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/03/18/weekend-update-596/
Balas
ChartArt ChartArt
@ChartArt, More information about the second year of the 'Four Year Presidential Cycle'. The excerpts below suggest a possible near term high in the stock market at the end of the year 2017 and then a possible low and or weakness in 2018:

Quote: "The second year of a presidential term is traditionally a period of subpar stock performance. The "presidential stock market cycle" says that stocks perform better or worse depending on the year of the president's term. The second year is the worst, and the third is the best, on average. Specifically, since 1945, the second year of a president's term saw the S&P 500 gain 5.3% in price on average, versus 16.1% in the third, according to an analysis by S&P Capital IQ. " (...) " Why is that second year so bad? Because that is when the U.S. economy gets less attention from ruling-party politicians, says Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ, in New York. Mr. Stovall likens the second year to "sophomore slump."

Source: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304069604579153503082957782?mod=e2tw
Balas
According to cycle research by Brad Gudgeon there is a 88-year human generation cycle and he is afraid that we repeat the mistakes of our great grand-parents in the near-future:

Quote:

"The 88-year great grandfather cycle has worked really well. The post WWI recession of 1920/21 adding 88 years equals 2008/09. According to the same cycle, we should be seeing a final top in late 2017, but my Elliott Wave work suggests it should come a year late (due to Central Bank manipulation, or the fact that we are living longer or both). That means we all have about 2 years to prepare for the worst crash since the Great Depression and then World War III." - Brad Gudgeon, November 6, 2016

http://blustarmarkettimer.blogspot.com/2016/11/countdown-e-wave-perspective.html
http://www.safehaven.com/article/43203/the-coming-crash-and-wwiii
Balas
ChartArt ChartArt
@ChartArt, The 88-year cycle has a similar length to the 84-year cycle which Sandy Jadeja says he found in the US stock market:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DOWI/0f1XxdeH-Cycle-periods-when-to-make-money-on-the-US-stock-market/#tc568009
Balas
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