Cycle periods when to make money on the US stock market

DJ:DJI   Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average
1625 51 5
Summary: Buy stocks in the year 2020-2022 with sell target 25000 in the year 2026

The trend trajectory for the DOW Industrial index is starting to get very bearish in the year 2017 at the latest. A time when Donald Trump might have become the next US president, which would strongly influence the world history.

After a sharp three year decline of the stock market from the highs of the year 2015-2016 a bottom for the large downtrend of the year 2017 might be near during or shortly after the year "2020". Two years later a very strong new rally could start in the year 2022 when the "DOW" could move back above 19000 points. This rally could last at least until the year 2026 where 25000 points could be reached on the "DOWI".

Worth reading:
The 56 Year Benner Cycle, "Periods when to make money" illustration by George Tritcht (1897)

"The 2021 major bottom cycle would be correspondent to the 1949 major low before the big bull move until the 1960's." - The Benner-Fibonacci Cycle Model

Economic Confidence Model ( ECM             )

P.S. I hope Tradingview exists for so long that we can follow the accuracy of this chart over the next decade :)

P.P.S . As of publishing this chart the DOWI             is below 16400 points (at 16398). If the chart gets messed up, here is a screenshot:
Sergey Tarasov has conducted cycle research using the Dow Jones Industrial Index from 1789 on monthly data developed by the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. Bill
Meridian. When he made the reseach it was the last 219 years of price data (22 September 2008).

His process of cyclic analysis consisted of these major steps:

1) The normalization of original data
2) The identification of the most powerful cycles by
application of spectrum analysis
3) The generation of the projection line based on these cycles

Sergey Tarasov's most important cycles which he discovered in the Dow Jones price data going back to 1789 were 40 months, 5.9 years and 9.1 years. He then created a superposition of these three cycles (shown on page 6 of 9). This teal colored projection line for all three cycles together shows a peak to occur in the middle of the year 2018 and a cycle low in the last quarter of the year 2020. His cycle work also showed a low to occur in the year 2014, which was almost correct with the actual low in the Dow Jones uptrend occuring in 2015 (this "Verification" forecast was made in the year 2008 using prices from 1789 until the year 1986). The only really good fit between the cycle projection and the Dow Jones price data occured in the year 2000-2001 though (with both cycle and price having a peak).

StarCapital Research has created a bearish S&P 500 forecast using the Shiller-CAPE.

Quote: "Research has shown that there existed a strong relationship between the cyclically adjusted Shiller-CAPE and long-term equity returns in the past." Based on their findings they made a forecast what returns equity investors can expect over the next 10-15 years.

Their 'worst case' forecast shows a potential crash starting in 2018 and ending in December of the year 2020 at below 800 points on the S&P 500. While their 'average development' forecast shows a mild decline after around the year 2019 until December 2020, which would bring the S&P 500 back down to 2500 points. Their 'light grey corridor' (p=50%) reflects 50% of all observed values and forecasts a decline down to 2000 points on the S&P 500 until the end of the year 2020. And their 'dark grey' 80% of all observed values corridor forecasts a decline of the S&P 500 down to 1700 points until the end of the year 2020.

Stock Traders Almanac called the work of George Lindsay "the finest long-term forecast we have ever seen". Applying the theories of George Lindsay who "predicted the start of history's greatest bull market accurate to 7 Dow points" to the Dow Jones results in a high point ("J" peak) between December 2017 to September 2018, followed by a market crash until around the year 2020.
A slightly shifted presidential cycle by Michael Carr (shifted because the presidential inauguration was changed from March 4 to January 20 in the year 1937) outlines a stock market high in Q1 and a low around September-October 2018.
ChartArt ChartArt
This seasonal analysis of the last 116 years of mid-term years since 1900 comes to a very similar conclusion. If history repeats Q1 of 2018 would in that case mark a high of the year 2018 and the low would be around September-October 2018.
The Bradley Siderograph long terms turn dates for 2018 are suggesting that a stock market peak could occur in the year 2018 around August 28, followed by a decline until around January 22, 2019 (blue colored line on related chart link below).

Another chart by Tom McClellan also shows a potential top in Q1 2018 for the Dow Jones. In this analysis he flipped the historical chart of the Dow Jones upside down going back to the year 2008.
There is a interesting relationship between the Dow Jones and Commercials' Position in Eurodollar set forward by 54 weeks (plus or minus to weeks), which Tom McClellan discovered. It suggests a stock market peak in Q1 2018, with a final peak on Friday, May 18. Followed by a crash lasting until September 21, 2018.

current chart for 2018
old chart for 2015
Tom McClellan has found a potential chart pattern match between the Dow Jones and the price of Crude Oil set forward by 10 years. McClellan writes that "this relationship has been working since the Dow Jones Industrial Average was created in the year 1896 and that this approach suggests a top in the stock market in June 2018 followed by a major low in January 2019 and a sideways-to-up movement into early 2024.
A mathematical long-term forecast for the S&P 500 does not bode well: after a dramatic crash from next year comes a slow decline in which the US stock market collapses by about 80 percent. This shows a long-term forecast for the index on the basis of the so-called Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD).

Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is a method developed by NASA scientists to evaluate and predict time series from any field. The method decomposes every kind of time series into different vibrations and a trend component and continues these movements for the future.

The EMP-based price forecast for the S&P 500 shows that the current bull market is likely to continue until the year 2018. According to the forecast, an all-time high in the S&P 500 would be reached at around October 2018. Subsequently, the index is likely to show sideways consolidation before the index falls dramatically between 2020 and 2022.

Source: Oliver Baron
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