The trend trajectory for the DOW Industrial index is starting to get very in the year 2017 at the latest. A time when Donald Trump might have become the next US president, which would strongly influence the world history.
After a sharp three year decline of the stock market from the highs of the year 2015-2016 a bottom for the large downtrend of the year 2017 might be near during or shortly after the year "2020". Two years later a very strong new rally could start in the year 2022 when the "DOW" could move back above 19000 points. This rally could last at least until the year 2026 where 25000 points could be reached on the "DOWI".
The 56 Year Benner Cycle, "Periods when to make money" illustration by George Tritcht (1897)
"The 2021 major bottom cycle would be correspondent to the 1949 major low before the big bull move until the 1960's." - The Benner-Fibonacci Cycle Model
Economic Confidence Model ( ECM )
P.S. I hope Tradingview exists for so long that we can follow the accuracy of this chart over the next decade :)
P.P.S . As of publishing this chart the DOWI is below 16400 points (at 16398). If the chart gets messed up, here is a screenshot:
Meridian. When he made the reseach it was the last 219 years of price data (22 September 2008).
His process of cyclic analysis consisted of these major steps:
1) The normalization of original data
2) The identification of the most powerful cycles by
application of spectrum analysis
3) The generation of the projection line based on these cycles
Sergey Tarasov's most important cycles which he discovered in the Dow Jones price data going back to 1789 were 40 months, 5.9 years and 9.1 years. He then created a superposition of these three cycles (shown on page 6 of 9). This teal colored projection line for all three cycles together shows a peak to occur in the middle of the year 2018 and a cycle low in the last quarter of the year 2020. His cycle work also showed a low to occur in the year 2014, which was almost correct with the actual low in the Dow Jones uptrend occuring in 2015 (this "Verification" forecast was made in the year 2008 using prices from 1789 until the year 1986). The only really good fit between the cycle projection and the Dow Jones price data occured in the year 2000-2001 though (with both cycle and price having a peak).
Quote: "Research has shown that there existed a strong relationship between the cyclically adjusted Shiller-CAPE and long-term equity returns in the past." Based on their findings they made a forecast what returns equity investors can expect over the next 10-15 years.
Their 'worst case' forecast shows a potential crash starting in 2018 and ending in December of the year 2020 at below 800 points on the S&P 500. While their 'average development' forecast shows a mild decline after around the year 2019 until December 2020, which would bring the S&P 500 back down to 2500 points. Their 'light grey corridor' (p=50%) reflects 50% of all observed values and forecasts a decline down to 2000 points on the S&P 500 until the end of the year 2020. And their 'dark grey' 80% of all observed values corridor forecasts a decline of the S&P 500 down to 1700 points until the end of the year 2020.
current chart for 2018 http://time-price-research-astrofin.blogspot.com/2018/01/s-500-index-vs-eurodollar-cots-leading.html
old chart for 2015 http://stockcharts.com/articles/tac/2015/05/tom-mcclellan-eurodollar-cots-leading-indication.html
Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is a method developed by NASA scientists to evaluate and predict time series from any field. The method decomposes every kind of time series into different vibrations and a trend component and continues these movements for the future.
The EMP-based price forecast for the S&P 500 shows that the current bull market is likely to continue until the year 2018. According to the forecast, an all-time high in the S&P 500 would be reached at around October 2018. Subsequently, the index is likely to show sideways consolidation before the index falls dramatically between 2020 and 2022.
Source: Oliver Baron https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.godmode-trader.de%2Fartikel%2Fus-aktien-bis-2029-geht-es-abwaerts%2C5542317&edit-text=