$DJI: Very long term view...

19 Okt 2021

I plotted blocks of 5 years as bars and did the TM analysis for them, which shows a very interesting view of the long term trend cycles in equities since the start of the Dow Jones index. You can see how this helped prevent exposure to equities during the 70s for example, or guard against a decline back in 1929. As an exercise, it's highly interesting, but we also get a warning for current market cycles. The yearly trend in DJI expires by end of 2021, and we are already beyond one target range for it, perhaps the next top is between 58k and 91k for the Dow Jones...by 2024 or sooner. Anything after 2022 is a dangerous zone already, from a TM perspective, personally I think the market will top next year, around May...as the Fed starts hiking, the timing matches various technical charts' timing expectations.

Best of luck navigating these murky waters ,

Ivan Labrie.

2 Dis 2021

Dagangan aktif

Update: the action lately makes me think the beginning of the end already is here.

Both DJI and SPX500 charts in the yearly timeframe give me an expiration by the end of 2021, and we are 1 month from the end of the year. Things are already down hard with the worst breadth seen in ages, far worse than 2018 for instance. Maybe there's a lot more to fall. I'm in cash in my equities accounts, for the most part, have some shorts and only 2 longs in foreign commodities related stocks.

2 Mac 2022

Nota

Beginning of the end was correct...
Gold returns since: +8.98%
SPX returns since: -4.56%
In long term bear markets, buy commodities/value/defensive names/raise cash.
In long term bull markets: buy bonds/stocks/credit/cash is trash.