DOGE to 2021 - Part of a long term BTC Cycle?
TLDR: May want to wait for BTC to drop or plateau over the next several months before buying any DOGE for medium term gains.
A simple ponder. I recently wrote about the possible long term trajectory of BTC (see tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/IUk33H1z-BTC-short-term-jump-in-a-longer-cycle/).
I will leave it up to the reader as to whether you agree or not. I'm not an expert, but I'm always looking for long term trends, and BTC conforms very nicely.
However, if you do happen to agree, it has interesting implications for DOGE coin. I've been thinking of using DOGE as more of a short to medium term investment - since it has such large spikes! My main worry was I wasn't sure exactly how predictable these spikes were. If only I knew whether DOGE was following a medium term bullish or bearish market.
Then I had the AHA moment. DOGE is very much coupled with BTC cycles, and on a logarithmic scale undergoes very similar parabolic/ exponential cycles. If we look the current value of BTC with the perspective of a 2-3 year trend (in which we are aprox 50-60% of the way through) - the value of BTC is way too high, and we could expect a drop +/- a plateau over the next 6 months, before it starts making another climb.
As a result, we would expect DOGE to follow a similar pattern.
So to answer the question: How low, will DOGE go? My current theory is "It will drop", but not my too much. Currently I think I'll wait for a BTC drop over the next few months, wait for DOGE to drop with it, and once it seems to align nicely with that long term parabolic curve, I'll re-examine where I think the best investment opportunity is.
A simple ponder. I recently wrote about the possible long term trajectory of BTC (see tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/IUk33H1z-BTC-short-term-jump-in-a-longer-cycle/).
I will leave it up to the reader as to whether you agree or not. I'm not an expert, but I'm always looking for long term trends, and BTC conforms very nicely.
However, if you do happen to agree, it has interesting implications for DOGE coin. I've been thinking of using DOGE as more of a short to medium term investment - since it has such large spikes! My main worry was I wasn't sure exactly how predictable these spikes were. If only I knew whether DOGE was following a medium term bullish or bearish market.
Then I had the AHA moment. DOGE is very much coupled with BTC cycles, and on a logarithmic scale undergoes very similar parabolic/ exponential cycles. If we look the current value of BTC with the perspective of a 2-3 year trend (in which we are aprox 50-60% of the way through) - the value of BTC is way too high, and we could expect a drop +/- a plateau over the next 6 months, before it starts making another climb.
As a result, we would expect DOGE to follow a similar pattern.
So to answer the question: How low, will DOGE go? My current theory is "It will drop", but not my too much. Currently I think I'll wait for a BTC drop over the next few months, wait for DOGE to drop with it, and once it seems to align nicely with that long term parabolic curve, I'll re-examine where I think the best investment opportunity is.
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