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Singkat

Fed Balance Sheet Unwinding will push the Dollar Index back down

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I'm targeting 80.00 here.

Essentially, we are going to reverse the bullish move made by the ending of QE in 2014 (not the rolling over of assets though).

This is a simple fundamental play, which can also be backed up by the heavy break of support at 91/92.

We should see the Euro push up further from here as dollar hedging costs have increased drastically, which can be seen by 3 month LIBOR rate increases over the past year or two.

This same phenomenon occurred before the financial crisis, where institutions looked at cheaper currencies to conduct swap activity with.

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