Another 48h - DXY Relaxes Bearishly Into The Weekend

2025/01/17
Another 48h - DXY Relaxes Bearishly Into The Weekend
“the last time dxy was over 110 in 2022 and/or 2002!
what does this play in historical context? today?”



China's economy is humming and humming and humming - while the DXY DXY bearish price action seems to be relaxing into the weekend. Before Donald Trump is sworn in again as the 47th US President on Monday, January 20th, 2025. "The Chinese economy expanded by 5.4% yoy in Q4 2024, accelerating from 4.6% in Q3 and surpassing market estimates of 5.0%". And not only that. Domestic industrial production is also impressive: "China's industrial production grew by 6.2% yoy in December 2024, surpassing market estimates and the growth rate of 5.4% in November." And who hasn't enough? Take a look at the RetailSales: "China's retail sales rose by 3.7% year-on-year in December 2024, accelerating from November's 3-month low of 3.0% and exceeding market consensus of 3.5%." Why do I mention this? What does this have to do with the price action of the DXY ? On the one hand, the numbers prove that China is completely self-sufficient, i.e. completely independent of the rest of the world, and has organic (domestic) economic growth of its own! And this has been the case for years, decades - while the USA seems to be taking the opposite domestic economic policy path since more or less the year 2000. And/Or also foreign policy - in that the USA loses itself in fantastic war adventures. So it remains to be seen how Trump will act regarding China? How will Trump act? react? In order to change the focus from the disastrous domestic economic policy, let alone the war-adventurous foreign policy, of the last few years, decades. And to blame China for it. Which is absurd! “That's why I keep repeating the big historical picture - even if it doesn't play a role in day-to-day business. But it is no coincidence - let alone a conspiracy for or against China, let alone vice versa for or against the USA. No, the price action of each currency - as in the case of the DXY , let alone USDCNY is consistent with fiscal policy and/or economic policy decisions. And the corresponding foreign policy, as well as the monetary policy of the respective central banks. And I feel like a raging NFL head coach on the sidelines who wants to remind his players, my readers - including you - over and over again. Even if it's annoying? Yes, because I would consider it responsible as a coach, trainer, teacher, information broker with regard to price action on the financial market!”

“I CAN STATE THE CORE IDEA in two relatively simple propositions. One is that in situations that have thinking participants, the participants’ view of the world is always partial and distorted. That is the principle of fallibility. The other is that these distorted views can influence the situation to which they relate because false views lead to inappropriate actions. That is the principle of reflexivity.”
George Soros

110.176 : 2025/01/13 - Monday New 2025 High
109.966 : 2025/01/02 - Last Annual High 2025
109.533 : 2025/01/02 - 1st Annual High 2025
109.206 : 2025/01/03 - 1st High After 1st High 2025
109.058 : 2024/12/17 - last price action
108.583 : 2024/12/31 - Annual High 2024
107.587 : 2024/12/20 - Last Low Of 2024
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual High 2023
105.441 : 2024/11/06 - Trump Re-Election Day High
DXY relaxes bearishly into the weekend. Bearish tension in DXY today, like all this week. Because the price action is again tending to be bearish - like yesterday and/or days before - traders and/or investors sent the price action today to its annual high in 2024 at times around 108.583 (annual high 2024 from 2024/12/31). Last year's annual high was defended yesterday in daily trading. But there hasn't been a major bullish countermovement since then, yesterday shortly before the opening bell on Wall Street - not even today (yet). That's why the first two highs of this year 2025 should be paid attention to - 109.533 points from 2025/01/02 and/or 109.206 from 2025/01/03. Because, if these two price action zones are recaptured by the bulls, it confirms the assumption that traders and/or investors want the DXY higher. But as i try to tell you this whole week one and/or two bearish weeks shouldn't be a problem? However, a price action below 109.533 points from 2025/01/02 and/or 109.206 from 2025/01/03 down to the annual high of 2024, from the last day of the year, on 12/31/2024 at 108.583 points, is not bad in the big picture. Even as today happened. Also 107.587 points, from the 2024/12/20 (last low of 2024) and/or even 107.348 points, from the 2023/10/03 (annual high 2023) too. Yes, it may even make more sense in the long run - in a historical context. that the DXY fall bearish down around this price action area. And then come back to new highs.


With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron



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