Euro and pound weakness, dollar strength and US crisis

30 Sep 2019

The political scandal in the United States and Trump's coming impeachment proceedings. So the US stock market was falling against this background, the dollar was striving for multi-year highs.

Such behaviour could be explained by the weakness of competitors. The euro, for example, received a number of painful hits both from the weak data on the Eurozone (consumer confidence fell to the lowest levels since 2015) and Germany (according to experts at the DIW Institute, Germany's economy is heading into recession), and from the ECB’s chief economist announced the possibility of a further rate cut by the Central Bank.

The British pound also suffered losses in the foreign exchange market. The main reason is Brexit, or rather, the lack of progress in the negotiation process between Britain and the EU, as well as a statement by Bank of England representative that the Central Bank could reduce its interest rate even if it would be possible to avoid Britain's exit from the EU without a deal.

Despite the existence of reasons to dollar strengthen, we still consider it anomalous (in the end, the Fed has already lowered the rate twice this year and most likely will do it one more time). Therefore, this week we will continue to look for points for its sales. However, there is no need to look for for a long time - the current dollar prices are close to ideal sales points.

Given the global vector of monetary easing by the Central Banks gold as an object of interest is strengthening. So this week we will continue to look for points of asset purchase. While gold is above 1485, we see no threats to its purchases.

Last week, selles trend was dominating on the oil market. The main reason was information on Saudi Arabia return oil production to its previous level. Data on oil reserves in the United States (reserves rose), as well as updated IEA forecasts, showing a slowdown in the growth of demand for oil in the world. In this light, our recommendation to sell oil this week remains relevant. Remember oil might be corrected any time, that means that small stops must be placed with every open position in oil.

With regard to macroeconomic statistics, attention should be paid primarily to statistics on the US labour market (traditionally it is published on Friday), the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday (expected to reduce rates by 0.25%), UK GDP on Monday as well as consumer inflation in the Eurozone and US business activity indices.