Stronger USD short term

19 Jul 2019

With earnings seasons kicking off with positive news but downturn in stocks and related indices, investors will start taking their money out of the stock market. Gold also is seeing a downturn with the possibility of a correction coming. All of this combined with lessening pressures from trade deals at the moment and better "performance ratings" from economic indicators.

I guess there's also the technical analysis. The way I see it the correction in the dollars uptrend that we just experienced correlates with the economic news of the last few weeks, creating a nice downward channel and bearish harmonic for us. Now that those are complete though, we should see some momentum back to the upside, which is present. If this is enough to break us out of the channel we can expect another wave up before the inevitable long correction we experience when we enter recession eventually lol.

23 Jul 2019

Nota

The model is still holding as valid with the first wave up having a pullback right where it needed to be retest some key structure. Now we’ll wait to see how the dollar continues to play out heading into the end of this month/rest of this week. If we can hold this structure we’ll take those bullish sentiments and take then to other pairs to see what trades we can make. Refund Rate next week.

26 Jul 2019

Nota

The dollar strengthened to the target zone on strong earnings in the stock market and a higher than expected GDP despite trade conflicts with Japan the last few months. The drop still implicates a rate cute will be coming soon and we wait to see if that will be what happens next week. Until then I'm expecting consolidation around this area, and with word of Trump discussing with his cabinet about weakening the dollar who knows. Either way a stronger USD means it's more expensive for other countries to do business with us so a correction will need to happen soon.