Another 48h - DXY For The First Time Again Over 110

2025/01/13
Another 48h - DXY For The First Time Again Over 110
“the last time dxy was over 110 in 2022 and/or 2002!
what does this play in historical context? today?”



The reasons to buy stocks at this level - if you don't have any yourself - seem to be slowly running out of more and more analysts, commentators and/or market reporters. Even if no one wants to hear it. The surprisingly strong labor market report from the USA on Friday now seems to have robbed even the last bull of any hope of a further interest rate cut. Rate cuts while WallStreet is in historic overbought territory? This can't go well! But when will this bubble burst? I don't know! Maybe we're already there? Or next month? Next quarter? Next year? As I wrote - I don't know! What I do know is that traders and/or investors are starting to factor in the possibility that the Fed might not cut interest rates at all this year, 2025! At least this is what the bond market is signaling, where yields continue to rise - i.e. the US10Y . Fixed-interest and therefore low-risk bonds are increasingly becoming an alternative to stock markets DJIA SP500 NDX that are still highly valued.

“Jobs report fuels Treasury yield surge as markets brace for 5% threshold”, as Reuters headlined 12 hours ago. While Barron headlined 6 hours ago also: “Markets Face Bond Yields Threat. Why JPMorgan, Goldman Earnings Are Key for Fed Rates and 5 Other Things to Know Today”. So that I feel confirmed in my assumption that I will not formulate any new long 4XSetUps in individual stocks! Why? Then prefer a long UKOIL 4XSetUp! And/Or also long US01Y 4XSetUps! I actually seriously considered going long on the DXY over the weekend - but gave up a few hours ago. Because we are now starting another bullish week in the 7th calendar week following. After previously having a negative bearish week with -1.59%. And before that there were even 8 bullish calendar weeks - since the last week of September 2024. Where the DXY had its annual low of 2024 at 100,157 points. So 15 of the last 16 weeks have been bullish in the DXY ! Why? Trump, US budget deficit and/or foreign trade balance - and a stock market at historic highs with a historic overvaluation! My cfd online broker analyst friend always gives me the middle finger about this topic and argues: "US stocks are simply too expensive - in the historical context. The US budget deficit and/or foreign trade balance is also more or less at historic highs, so the lenders, even the bond market wants higher interest rates. Just a major failure premiere." I don't contradict that - but I don't dare formulate a long DXY 4XSetUp. Although I basically no longer expect the DXY to fall significantly! Why?

“As I like to put it, we have hit pay dirt. The effort to cure the resource curse is a good example of what private foundations working with NGOs can accomplish.”
George Soros

110.176 : 2025/01/13 - todays new 2025 high
109.966 : 2025/01/02 - last annual high 2025
109.888 : 2025/01/10 - last price action
109.533 : 2025/01/02 - 1st annual high 2025
109.206 : 2025/01/03 - 1st high after 1st high 2025
108.583 : 2024/12/31 - annual high 2024
107.587 : 2024/12/20 - last low of 2024
107.348 : 2023/10/03 - annual high 2023
105.441 : 2024/11/06 - trump re-election day high
The first two highs of this year 2025 should be paid attention to - 109.533 points from 2025/01/02 and/or 109.206 from 2025/01/03. Because, if these are defended, it confirms the assumption that traders and/or investors want the DXY higher. But even a price action below that - even up to the annual high of 2024, from the last day of the year, on 12/31/2024 at 108.583 points, is not bad in the big picture. Like 107.587 points, from the 2024/12/20 (last low of 2024) and/or even 107.348 points, from the 2023/10/03 (annual high 2023) too. Yes, it may even make more sense in the long run - in a historical context. that the DXY fall bearish down around this price action area. Then recover and/or continue to rise. Because the big picture in the historical context is the price action above 110 points and more. Because this was last left bearish downwards in June 2002 - before the Iraq war. And/Or also traded briefly bullishly for the first time in 2 decades in September 2022 - before the Ukraine War. The main cause of the US's problem - its costly war adventures! Which not only costs human lives - but also makes the majority of domestic US Americans (taxpayers and/or consumers) financially materially poorer. Due to the accumulated US budget deficit and/or also the US foreign trade balance. But to come back to today? The chart looks bullish!


With best wishes
and good intentions:
Aaron



Another 48h - DXY ... is pure information material.
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