US Dollar Bulls Return Ahead of NFPs

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The US Dollar is testing resistance today at the 2023 / 2024 low day closes (LDC) at 99.95-100.42- looking for possible infection off this mark in the days ahead.

A closer look at USD price action shows the index trading into the resistance at the median-line in early U.S. trade. A topside breach above this threshold is needed to validate a breakout of the weekly opening-range with subsequent resistance see at the September high-day close (HDC) / September high at 101.77/92. Note that channel resistance converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and a breach / close above this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last week / a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance eyed at the 2016 high-close / 2020 high at 102.95/99 and the 2023 yearly open at 103.49.

Key support remains unchanged at the 2018 swing high / 61.8% retracement of the 2018 advance at 97.71-98.39- a close below this threshold would threaten another bout of accelerated USD losses with subsequent support seen at the 96-handle, the 2022 LDC at 95.17 and the March 2020 low at 94.65.

A rebound off key support takes the U.S. Dollar into initial resistance with major event risk on tap tomorrow. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to this week’s low IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach above 100.42 needed to fuel the next leg of the recovery.
-MB

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