Indeks Mata Wang Dolar A.S.Panjang
1Q2025 update pre-January NFPs
This idea is a follow up on my previous DXY idea attached below. I predicted the DXY to pullback at the start of the year and for the support level between 106.9 and 107.4 to hold its ground upon this pullback.
The 50-day MA currently at 107.8 is now the main support level to hold and a failed break below this level will be an early indication of another 5-wave impulse higher towards the September 2022 high at 114.8 in the 1Q2025.
The announcement over the weekend of Trumps 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada plus the 10% import levies imposed on China has sent the DXY straight up towards the current yearly high at 110.1 in the early morning trade which in dollar positive.
In terms of US treasuries and the US government's debt burden, President Trump has to somehow create demand for the US treasuries and a persistent inflation environment forces investors to demand a higher yield on their treasuries. I believe Trump will create this US treasury demand by sucking dollars back into the US via his trade tariffs and suspension of foreign aid to other countries (essentially allowing the dollar milkshake theory to playout). The dollar may however get too strong for Trump's likening since a stronger dollar makes goods from the US more expensive while making foreign goods cheaper for the US which will only further exacerbate the US trade deficit.
Trump essentially needs a weaker dollar to turn the US into an exporting manufacturing country, "making America great again" but I see the effect of his policies being dollar positive?
Perhaps Trump will negotiate a Plaza accord 2.0 to systematically devalue the dollar...
The 50-day MA currently at 107.8 is now the main support level to hold and a failed break below this level will be an early indication of another 5-wave impulse higher towards the September 2022 high at 114.8 in the 1Q2025.
The announcement over the weekend of Trumps 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada plus the 10% import levies imposed on China has sent the DXY straight up towards the current yearly high at 110.1 in the early morning trade which in dollar positive.
In terms of US treasuries and the US government's debt burden, President Trump has to somehow create demand for the US treasuries and a persistent inflation environment forces investors to demand a higher yield on their treasuries. I believe Trump will create this US treasury demand by sucking dollars back into the US via his trade tariffs and suspension of foreign aid to other countries (essentially allowing the dollar milkshake theory to playout). The dollar may however get too strong for Trump's likening since a stronger dollar makes goods from the US more expensive while making foreign goods cheaper for the US which will only further exacerbate the US trade deficit.
Trump essentially needs a weaker dollar to turn the US into an exporting manufacturing country, "making America great again" but I see the effect of his policies being dollar positive?
Perhaps Trump will negotiate a Plaza accord 2.0 to systematically devalue the dollar...
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Penerbitan berkaitan
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.