ES/SPY Weekly Levels (Jan 17-20)

The S&P 500 has recently come off a positive 2.62% price move after the release of Consumer Price Index data. It is currently outperforming the Nasdaq and Russell indices and is back above its 9/21/55 moving averages. The price is also above the key June 17th low and closed last week at a resistance level at the 200-day moving average. The longer-term downward trendline is also within striking distance. The S&P 500 will remain in a longer-term downward trend until the December 13th pivot level is broken. The earning season has begun and may provide bullish momentum. Key data releases for the week include Producer Price Index, Retail Sales, and Initial Jobless Claims. The S&P 500 is likely to set the tone for the broader market and is potentially pricing in a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The US dollar has weakened while gold and Bitcoin have strengthened. The possibility of a massive short covering rally is present, and many algorithms and momentum tracking ETFs will flip to the buy side if the price holds above the 200-day moving average.

• Coming off a positive weekly 2.62 % price move after CPI data
• S&P is outperforming the Nasdaq and Russel
• Price back above 9/21/55 emas
• Price is above key June 17th low
• Closed last week at 200 sma resistance
• The longer term downward trendline is within striking distance
• S&P will remain in a longer term down trend until the Dec 13th pivot is broken
• Earnings season has begun and may provide bullish momentum
• Key data this week included PPI, retail sales and initial jobless claims
• S&P will likely to set the tone for broader market
• Market potentially pricing in a Fed pivot already
• USD has weakened and gold has strengthened along with BTC.
• Massive short covering rally is possible
• Many algos and momentum tracking ETFs will flip to the buy side if price holds above the 200 sma.
• Key pivots are the Dec 13th high (4179) and the Dec 22nd low (3788)

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday US market closed
Tuesday Canadian CPI, NY Fed Manufacturing & Fed’s Williams speaks
Wednesday US PPI, US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production & Fed’s Bullard speaks
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US Housing Starts, US Continuing Claims & EIA Crude
Friday US Existing Home Sales & Fed’s Harker speaks

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday US markets closed
Tuesday EDU, GS, MS, UAL
Wednesday AA, DFS, KMI, SCHW
Thursday NFLX, PG, TAL, FAST
Friday ALLY, RF, SLB

BULLISH NOTES

Coming off positive reaction to CPI data
Potential bullish tone change
Earning season momentum
Potential positive reaction to big bank earnings
Potential positive reaction to PPI & Retail data
Price above ema cloud and June 17th low. Price also forming potential reverse H&S pattern.
Potential massive move above downward trend line
Break of 200 sma would be very bullish and could lead to massive short covering rally

BEARISH NOTES

S&P at key 200sma resistance to start week
Potential negative reaction to big bank earnings
Potential negative reaction to PPI and Retail sales data
Market considers recent move a bullish correction within longer term down trend.
Heavy sell off possible if S&P rejects at resistance
Potential early retest of ema cloud

Komen:

Correction from below. The Russel is not in fact trailing the ES. It is actually leading. I take it as risk on rotation. Something important to watch. This and the recent bullish move in BTC may be a sign of market tone change.

Komen:

Attempting to break and hold above the 200 sma. 1st target above is the downward trendline (white arrow). Next level would be the Dec high if price continues bullish momentum.

Komen:

Here a look at the 1H after the PPI numbers have been released. Was unable to break through the 200 yesterday. Watching the pivot high for a break this morning.
Trendline and Dec 13th high remain upside targets.

Komen:

ES rejecting off the 200 sma after working hard to get above it. May see another trip back down to the 9 ema on the daily.

Komen:

Went much deeper than the 9 ema. Blew through the 21 ema as well yesterday as bad news is getting treated as bad news. Finding some support at the 50% fib. Next level down would be the ascending trendline. Below that the Dec low.
Resistance above is now the 21 ema. Very choppy morning session.

Komen:

Friday look at $ES_F on the 1H. Held the 50% fib yesterday and breaking from base like NQ. Targets would be 382/50 Fibs above. OPEX day so expect back and forth action.

Komen:

382 hit. Expect some resistance here.