ES Weekly Levels (Jan2-5)

2 Jan 2024

The week rally continued into the holiday week. NQ and ES both finished the week green dispite a mild sell off on Thur & Fri back to their respective 9 EMAs. NQ started the new year above the Jan 12th high 4% off the ATH. ESstarted the new year at the 1.13 Fib X & above the July 27th high just 4.2% off the ATH. Market is overbought but the ATH remains a strong magnet for price.

SUMMARY

• ES finished the 9th week with a gain of 0.28% after trading in a range of 44 pts.
  
• ES held the July 27th high and 9 ema.
  
• Price currently overbought and may need to test the 21 ema / July 27th high before bullish continuation
  
• 1st resistance = Mar 29th high (4861)
  
• 1st support = 9 ema (4802)
  
• A move above the Mar 29th high makes a move to 4900 likely
  
• A move below the 9 ema makes a move to the 21 ema likely
  
• Broad market support required to achieve ATH.
  
• Santa rally usually extends into the first few days of the NY.
  
• Sector rotation showed defensive shift last week with XLV, XLU & XLP outperforming
  
• FOMC minutes due out Wed and NFP due out Friday.
  
• RSI 69 | VIX at 12.44 | 10 year 3.87%
  

2 Jan 2024

Nota

ES getting pressured on the first day of the New Year due to big drop in AAPL and pressure on the Mag 7. Now trading below the 9 ema. If unable to reclaim the 9 ema during the cash session a move down to the 21 ema is likely.

3 Jan 2024

Nota

$ES_F came close the 21 ema downside target. Price likely to retest this low or a little deeper to the July 27th high. Good chance we get a strong bounce from the bottom of the green box. Careful of a flush below and then hard reversal. FOMC minutes due out at 2pm est / 11am pst.

4 Jan 2024

Nota

$ES_F The July 27th high target to the downside has been achieved. Seeing a good bounce from the bottom of the green box. Expecting solid support here but there is room below to the 236 Fib RT and Sept 1st high if the bearish trend continues.
NFP on Friday.