ES/SPY Weekly Levels (Nov7-11)
The S&P finished the week down 3.37% after trading a range of 212 points. Price has fallen once again below the 9/21/55 emas but remains above the June 17th low. The key driver last week was the FOMC .75% rate hike and hawkish commentary from JPOW. The fed pivot in now off the table and focus will turn to CPI data due out on Thursday and US Mid Term elections on Tuesday. Below are a few points I am considering.
• Coming off 3.37% down week after hawkish FOMC
• SPX below 9/21/55 ema but above the June 17th low
• SPX is out performing the Nasdaq
• Mid term election on Tuesday
• CPI data out on Thursday
• Many small cap growth names reporting earnings this week
• Chinese names in focus after strong bounce Friday and next week’s earnings
• SPX in historically bullish period
• VIX neutral at 24.56
• Downside trendline and Fib X projects a potential move to 3250
• Upside trendline and Fib RT projects a potential move to 4100
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed’s Collins, Mester & Barkin speak
Tuesday US Mid term elections
Wednesday Fed’s Williams & Barkin speak, US EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Jobless Claims, US CPI & Fed heads speak
Friday University of Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday BLDP, PLTR, CRON, ATVI, FANG, DOCN, LYFT, PACB, QGEN, SEDG, TTWO, TRIP
Tuesday COTY, DD, MNKD, NCLH, REYN, AMC, AFRM, BLNK, CLNE, LCID, NVAX, OXY, PLUG, UPST, WTI, DIS
Wednesday CGC, DHI, AG, HBI, RBLX, RCI, TTD, BYND, CELH, APPS, RDFN, PLBY, U,
Thursday AZN, CAE, NIO, YETI, DOCS, MTTR, TOST
Friday AQN, SJR
BULLISH NOTES
Historically bullish period for the S&P
VIX below 25
Potential positive reaction to CPI data
Potential positive reaction to Mid Term results
Potential move in 10y below 3.90%
Above June 17th low
BEARISH NOTES
Below 9/21/55 ema
Potential negative reaction to CPI data
Potential negative reaction to Mid Term results
Hawkish Fed
Potential move in the 10y above 4.43%
• Coming off 3.37% down week after hawkish FOMC
• SPX below 9/21/55 ema but above the June 17th low
• SPX is out performing the Nasdaq
• Mid term election on Tuesday
• CPI data out on Thursday
• Many small cap growth names reporting earnings this week
• Chinese names in focus after strong bounce Friday and next week’s earnings
• SPX in historically bullish period
• VIX neutral at 24.56
• Downside trendline and Fib X projects a potential move to 3250
• Upside trendline and Fib RT projects a potential move to 4100
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday Fed’s Collins, Mester & Barkin speak
Tuesday US Mid term elections
Wednesday Fed’s Williams & Barkin speak, US EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Jobless Claims, US CPI & Fed heads speak
Friday University of Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday BLDP, PLTR, CRON, ATVI, FANG, DOCN, LYFT, PACB, QGEN, SEDG, TTWO, TRIP
Tuesday COTY, DD, MNKD, NCLH, REYN, AMC, AFRM, BLNK, CLNE, LCID, NVAX, OXY, PLUG, UPST, WTI, DIS
Wednesday CGC, DHI, AG, HBI, RBLX, RCI, TTD, BYND, CELH, APPS, RDFN, PLBY, U,
Thursday AZN, CAE, NIO, YETI, DOCS, MTTR, TOST
Friday AQN, SJR
BULLISH NOTES
Historically bullish period for the S&P
VIX below 25
Potential positive reaction to CPI data
Potential positive reaction to Mid Term results
Potential move in 10y below 3.90%
Above June 17th low
BEARISH NOTES
Below 9/21/55 ema
Potential negative reaction to CPI data
Potential negative reaction to Mid Term results
Hawkish Fed
Potential move in the 10y above 4.43%
Komen:
Here is a zoomed out look at the S&P with the longer term bull/bear targets identified.
Komen:
The ES has broken out of a similar base pattern as NQ only higher in trend. Resistance is the 55 ema and first support is the 9/21 ema cloud. Above the 55 ema the Nov 1st pivot is in play. Below the cloud a move back down to the June 17th low is possible.
Komen:
Initial resistance at the 55 ema was reclaimed today on CPI data. Price sliced through the Nov 1st pivot stopping just below the first upside target (618). Now the 200 sma is in play. Look for price to hold 50% of today's uptrend for bullish continuation.
