ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis for Week Ahead (Nov 17th - 21st)

Market Analysis: ES1 - Navigating Recent Price Action and Upcoming Economic Catalysts

Current Price Context:
The E-mini S&P 500 (ES1) is currently trading in the range of 6,755 to 6,785, following a sharp pullback from the 6,880 to 6,900 peak and a notable rebound off the 6,650 levels. While both the weekly and daily structures exhibit an overarching uptrend characterized by higher highs and higher lows, we are presently experiencing a mid-pullback phase, with prices resting below a newly established supply zone spanning 6,850 to 6,900. Importantly, we remain above the key demand shelf situated around 6,650 to 6,670.

Big Picture Overview: Weekly and Daily Trends
- Weekly Analysis: Over recent months, ES has ascended from approximately 6,000 to the 6,900 level. The past few weeks have seen a new high printed, followed by a red candle signaling a pullback towards mid-range levels. Despite this corrective move, we maintain a buffer above the preceding weekly low near the 6,500 to 6,550 range, affirming the uptrend. The current price action appears more as a corrective pause rather than a definitive peak.

- Daily Perspective: After reaching a new high just shy of the 6,900 mark, the market retreated into the mid-6,600s before bouncing back. Recent daily candles indicate a phase of consolidation within the 6,730 to 6,780 range, characterized by wicks on both ends and diminishing body sizes, alongside reduced volume compared to earlier volatility. Oscillator indicators are retreating from overbought conditions but appear to be stabilizing, suggesting a digestion phase rather than a full-scale momentum breakdown.

Shorter Timeframe Analysis (4-Hour and 1-Hour):
- On the 4-hour chart, a completed downward impulse from around 6,880 to the low 6,650s has been observed, with the price touching the 1.272 Fibonacci extension at approximately 6,653. Additional Fibonacci levels below include 6,597 (1.618) and 6,536 (2.0). The price action around the 1.272 extension has prompted a robust response, featuring significant green candles and increased volume, establishing a base between 6,700 and 6,800.

- On the 1-hour chart, the market exhibits a minor uptrend (from lower lows to higher highs) that has encountered resistance around 6,780. Currently, price action is consolidating near a pivot level of 6,750, leading to the establishment of a balance range between 6,720 and 6,780 as we head into Monday.

Summary: The broader context remains bullish on higher timeframes, with a corrective phase taking root on the medium timeframe, while the short-term landscape indicates balance. This scenario represents a classic "trend pullback parked on key support," with next week's developments likely steering us either back toward the highs or engendering a deeper test of 6,600 or 6,550, contingent on forthcoming economic data and Fed commentary.

Macro and Event Landscape: A Busy Week Ahead
The recent U.S. government shutdown has resulted in a considerable backlog of economic data releases. Market participants will be closely monitoring delayed payroll data, along with other significant indicators such as industrial production and housing metrics that are being released simultaneously. This aggregation of data is anticipated to introduce intraday volatility, particularly during the 8:30 to 10:00 AM ET windows.

Key Economic Indicators to Watch:
- Core Data Releases: In the week of November 17–21, critical releases include:
- Empire State manufacturing index
- Import and export price indices
- Industrial production and capacity utilization figures for October
- Housing starts and building permits scheduled for mid-week
- Additional delayed labor data later in the week as agencies address the backlog.

- FOMC Minutes and Fed Commentary: The release of the FOMC minutes from the late October meeting will communicate the Fed's confidence in the recent improvements in inflation and its openness to potential rate cuts in December. A lineup of Fed speakers is set to take the stage, likely influencing market sentiment and causing price reactions based on their comments.

- Corporate Earnings: Noteworthy earnings reports from Nvidia and major retailers, including Walmart, are on the calendar. Nvidia's performance will be scrutinized as a barometer for the AI segment, while insights from retail giants will provide a glimpse into consumer health as the holiday season approaches. Strong results coupled with optimistic guidance tend to buoy ES, while any disappointments could weigh on index futures, especially given the concentrated leadership from a handful of major tech stocks.

Market Sentiment and Positioning: Rate-cut expectations for December have decreased to about 40%, leaving investors cautious but not overly alarmed. This environment allows for potential relief rallies if data and Fed sentiments tilt favorably, while a series of negative reports may trigger a notable risk-off sentiment.

Conclusion: The upcoming week is poised to be event-driven, lacking a singular "mega" release like CPI but rather presenting a series of medium-to-large catalysts (Fed minutes, late payrolls, industrial production, housing statistics, Nvidia, and Walmart). Traders should be prepared for choppy conditions and liquidity fluctuations around the release times, with clearer directional moves anticipated between these events.

KEY ZONES – RESISTANCE

Resistance 1: 6,780–6,800
Immediate intraday cap formed by the last 1h high and the 4h supply block from Friday. This is the ceiling that has repeatedly turned price in the last session. A 1h or 4h close above 6,800 would confirm that buyers are back in control and likely aim for 6,850+ fairly quickly.

Resistance 2: 6,840–6,880
This is the core of the recent 4h supply and sits just below the prior daily high. It’s where the last strong sell program launched. If price trades into this pocket on light volume and stalls, that favours a lower-high top and another rotation back toward 6,720–6,700. If the tape pushes through decisively, shorts will be forced to cover.

Resistance 3: 6,900–6,930
Recent swing high / weak high area on daily. It’s the obvious target for any early-week squeeze. If this zone gets cleaned out and holds on the retest, the uptrend resumes and we can start talking about higher fib extensions and a run toward the 7,000 handle. A sharp rejection here, especially around Fed minutes or Nvidia earnings, would fit a double-top pattern and could kick off a deeper pullback leg.

Resistance 4: 7,050–7,200
This band lines up with the daily fib projection cluster (around 7,180–7,325) from the prior leg and the upper edge of the larger weekly supply. It’s not expected to be reached immediately, but if data and earnings line up bullishly, this is the swing target area for longs initiated off the 6,650–6,700 support.

KEY ZONES – SUPPORT

Support 1: 6,720–6,740
This is Friday’s late-day base and Sunday evening pivot zone, sitting right around current price. It lines up with the 1h equilibrium where price has been rotating. As long as ES holds above 6,720 on closing basis, buyers are defending the immediate balance and can make another push toward 6,780–6,800.

Support 2: 6,650–6,670
This is the recent swing low on 4h and sits just above the 1.272 extension (~6,653). It’s the first real higher-timeframe demand pocket of this pullback. A clean tag and strong bounce here would look like a classic trend-pullback low forming. A sustained break under 6,650 would suggest the market isn’t done repricing and opens the door to the deeper fibs.

Support 3: 6,595–6,610
This cluster includes the 1.618 extension (~6,597) and prior breakout structure from earlier in the trend. It’s the “deeper but still healthy” retrace area; if ES flushes into this band on bad data then snaps back, it can still preserve the weekly uptrend. Failing here would start to threaten the bullish structure and invite a test toward the prior weekly low.

Support 4: 6,530–6,560
The 2.0 extension (~6,535) plus the weekly prior low / PML region. This is a major higher-timeframe floor. If ES ever gets here this week, the tape is likely under stress, but it also becomes the zone where large buyers usually test the waters for a bigger swing entry. A weekly close below ~6,530 would be the first real warning that the uptrend is morphing into something more corrective or even distributive.

Support 5 (deeper swing): 6,300–6,350
Older weekly demand and prior quarterly low / PQL area. Not a base case for this week, but important to note as the “catastrophic” downside magnet if something truly breaks (data shock, earnings disaster, geopolitical flare-up).

SETUPS – WEEK AHEAD IDEA PACK
1. Trend-pullback continuation long from support

Location: 6,650–6,670 primary, 6,595–6,610 secondary.

Trigger idea:
Look for an overnight or early-week sweep into 6,650–6,670 that quickly rejects (long lower wick on 1h / 4h, strong reclaim back above 6,680). Ideally, this happens outside the heaviest data windows so it’s more order-flow driven than headline noise.
If that fails and price drives into 6,595–6,610 instead, repeat the same logic there: washout, strong reaction, then a reclaim of 6,620–6,630 as confirmation that buyers stepped in.

Upside path from this setup:
First target is the 6,780–6,800 cap. If that gives way, next magnet is 6,840–6,880, then a possible extension run at the 6,900–6,930 recent high area. Later in the week, if macro tailwinds show up, this move can stretch toward 7,000 and, in an optimistic case, into the 7,100+ fib cluster.

Risk management conceptually:
From a swing perspective, the “line in the sand” for this idea is under 6,595. A clean daily close below that level would invalidate the shallow-pullback idea and suggest we are heading toward 6,530–6,560 or lower.
2. Short-term fade from the 6,840–6,880 / 6,900 pocket

Location: 6,840–6,880 first, 6,900–6,930 as extension.

Trigger idea:
If ES trades up into 6,840–6,880 ahead of Fed minutes or the Nvidia/Walmart prints and shows tired price action (long upper wicks on 15m/1h, loss of intraday momentum, failure to hold above 6,860), that area is attractive for a tactical short aiming back toward the 6,780–6,750 pivot.
A more aggressive fade is possible into 6,900–6,930 if the first test breaches 6,880 but immediately stalls at the prior high.

Downside path from this setup:
First magnet is the 6,780–6,800 band, then the balance base at 6,720–6,740. If that gives way on a macro shock, sellers can push for a retest of 6,650–6,670.

Risk management conceptually:
For shorts initiated at 6,840–6,880, a protective stop makes sense above 6,910–6,920. Fades taken into a full sweep of 6,900–6,930 should respect a hard stop above ~6,950; above that, risk of a proper breakout toward 7,000+ increases sharply.
3. Range-trade scalps inside 6,720–6,780

While ES is stuck inside this intraday box, there is room for mean-reversion trades: buying dips into 6,720–6,730 and selling pushes into 6,770–6,780 with tight intraday stops. This is a lower-quality idea compared to the bigger levels, but it’s relevant if Monday and early Tuesday stay choppy while everyone waits for the meat of the calendar mid-week.