8/8: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
Recap
As predicted in my last newsletter, the ES saw a relief bounce after putting in 4 consecutive red days for the first time since May. I went long late on Friday afternoon at 4493 and we saw a rally from 4493 on Friday to 4522 overnight on Monday, followed by a dip and then a continued rise. This was due to a technical backtest of a 3-week ascending triangle that broke out on July 12th.
Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly down
🌍 Europe: Down a lot
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Up a bit
World Headlines
Key Structures
The core structure now is a downtrend channel, extending from the July 27th high. This is a bull flag, with support at 4493-87 and resistance at 4592. Inside this structure, the 4550 zone and the 4528 level are noteworthy. The large rising uptrend channel in white, connecting the March lows and the May lows, is the primary medium-term channel.
Support Levels
The major support levels are 4527, 4509, 4493-87, 4475-70, 4448-51, 4438, 4421, 4397-4402, 4350-55, and 4307-4311.
Resistance Levels
The major resistance levels are 4538, 4556, 4577-80, 4591, 4620, 4634, 4668.
Trading Plan
I'm still holding my leftover 10% runner from 4493 and will only add if we get a good dip. After yesterday's rally, I think tricky, tactical, back and forth action is likely today. The best entry would be if we clipped 4509 support then popped to 4515. I'm not interested in buying the 4509 again as it's no longer a fresh level. In terms of shorts, I favor 4556 and 4577-80.
Wrap Up
While we dip today, bulls will want to defend that 4509 support at the lowest. The direct bull case would look something like holding above 4527, popping to 4549 or 4556, then heading up to 4577-80. The short-term bear case begins with the fail of 4509. I think things likely get tactical today, rewarding level to level day traders only with no bias. Expect bi-directional action.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
As predicted in my last newsletter, the ES saw a relief bounce after putting in 4 consecutive red days for the first time since May. I went long late on Friday afternoon at 4493 and we saw a rally from 4493 on Friday to 4522 overnight on Monday, followed by a dip and then a continued rise. This was due to a technical backtest of a 3-week ascending triangle that broke out on July 12th.
Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly down
🌍 Europe: Down a lot
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Up a bit
World Headlines
- China CPI and PPI data show deflation becoming a serious concern
- Moody’s downgrades numerous US regional banks and puts six larger banks on watch
Key Structures
The core structure now is a downtrend channel, extending from the July 27th high. This is a bull flag, with support at 4493-87 and resistance at 4592. Inside this structure, the 4550 zone and the 4528 level are noteworthy. The large rising uptrend channel in white, connecting the March lows and the May lows, is the primary medium-term channel.
Support Levels
The major support levels are 4527, 4509, 4493-87, 4475-70, 4448-51, 4438, 4421, 4397-4402, 4350-55, and 4307-4311.
Resistance Levels
The major resistance levels are 4538, 4556, 4577-80, 4591, 4620, 4634, 4668.
Trading Plan
I'm still holding my leftover 10% runner from 4493 and will only add if we get a good dip. After yesterday's rally, I think tricky, tactical, back and forth action is likely today. The best entry would be if we clipped 4509 support then popped to 4515. I'm not interested in buying the 4509 again as it's no longer a fresh level. In terms of shorts, I favor 4556 and 4577-80.
Wrap Up
While we dip today, bulls will want to defend that 4509 support at the lowest. The direct bull case would look something like holding above 4527, popping to 4549 or 4556, then heading up to 4577-80. The short-term bear case begins with the fail of 4509. I think things likely get tactical today, rewarding level to level day traders only with no bias. Expect bi-directional action.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
