ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses - Key Levels, Setups for Thu (Oct 16)

Kill-zones: London 02:00–05:00 · NY AM 09:30–11:00 · NY PM 13:30–16:00
The price is currently capped under yesterday’s VAH/PDH level. Bulls need to maintain levels above that zone to trigger the next upward movement. If we drop below, the previous POC/VAL will likely pull prices back in.

Premise
• Government 08:30 releases are unlikely; headline risk is lighter into the open.
• Primary scheduled risk is Fed Gov. Barr around 09:00 ET.
• Expect a cleaner auction: use our Level-KZ 15m→5m→1m sequence and prioritize first touches.

Tier-1 (A++) setups — Level-KZ Protocol

1. Short the cap at R2 (6,748.5–6,766.8)
Trigger: 15m rejection back inside → 5m re-close under → 1m LH pullback entry.
Stop: Above the 15m wick (+0.25–0.50).
Targets: TP1 6,712.5; TP2 6,695.5; TP3 6,651.0.
Management: At TP1 close 70%, runner to BE; seek TP2–TP3 during NY AM.

2. Break-and-hold long above PDH 6,766.8
Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6,766.8 → 5m pullback holds → 1m HL entry.
Stop: Below trigger wick (−0.25–0.50).
Targets: TP1 6,790–6,805; TP2 6,828–6,832; TP3 6,872–6,893.
Invalidation: 15m close back inside 6,748.5.

Tier-2 / Tier-3 bounce plays (sized ¾ and ½)
Quick-reclaim bounce at S2/S3 (6,695–6,683): Fast sweep → instant reclaim on 5m → 1m HL entry.
Targets: TP1 6,712.5; TP2 6,741.0; TP3 6,766.8.
Hard stop: 15m wick through S3 (≤0.50). Gate: TP1 ≥ 2.0R.