ES — Week Ahead (Sep 15–19) — Fundamentals & Key Risk Windows

Macro focus: FOMC (Wed 2:00/2:30 pm ET), plus Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, and LEI.

Calendar (ET):
Tue 9/16
• Retail Sales (Aug) 8:30 — Census schedule confirms Sep 16, 8:30 am release.
• Industrial Production (Aug) 9:15 — G.17 release calendar shows Sep 16 at 9:15 am.
• NAHB Housing Market Index (Sep) 10:00 — NAHB schedule sets Sep 16, 10:00 am.
• FOMC (Day 1) begins — Fed calendar.
Wed 9/17
• Housing Starts/Permits (Aug) 8:30 — Census/HUD note next report Sep 17, 8:30 am.
• FOMC Statement 2:00 / Powell 2:30 — Fed event calendar.
Thu 9/18
• Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 — DOL weekly; last print 263k (spike tied to TX/fraud anomalies).
• Philly Fed (MBOS) 8:30 — 3rd Thu schedule.
• Conference Board LEI 10:00 — next release Sep 18, 10:00 am.
Fri 9/19
• State Employment (Aug) 10:00 — BLS schedule.
• (FYI for next week: Existing Home Sales (Aug) Tue Sep 23, 10:00 am.)


Context to watch:
• Markets widely expect a 25 bp cut at the Sep 16–17 FOMC; path/“dots” and Powell’s tone matter more than the cut size.
• Michigan sentiment (prelim) fell to 55.4 with inflation expectations elevated (1-yr 4.8%, 5-yr 3.9%).


Tomorrow (Mon 9/15) — Trade Plan
Kill-zones (ET): NY AM 09:30–11:00; NY PM 13:30–16:00.
News risk: NAHB 10:00 (size down or wait 2–3m around print)

Long from support 6586 → TP1 6600
• 15m trigger: Rejection at 6586 (close ≥ 6587 after testing ≤ 6585).
• 5m confirm: Higher-low + close ≥ 6588.
• 1m entry: First retest that closes back above 6587.
• Hard SL: 15m wick low − 0.25–0.50.
• TP1: 6600 (book 70%, runner 30% @ BE).
• TP2 (runner): 6606.25.

Short from resistance 6600 → TP1 6586
• 15m trigger: Rejection at 6600 (close < 6596.5 after probing ≥ 6598.5).
• 5m confirm: Lower-high + close < 6596.0.
• 1m entry: First retest that closes back below 6596.5.
• Hard SL: 15m wick high + 0.25–0.50.
• TP1: 6586 (book 70%, runner 30% @ BE).
• TP2 (runner): 6581.50.

Weekly plan—how fundamentals change our timing
• Tue AM (Retail Sales 8:30 / IP 9:15 / HMI 10:00): Expect a more directional NY AM; trade level→level but avoid first prints by ±3–5m.
• Wed (FOMC 2:00/2:30): Treat NY PM as the main event; no positions carried into 1:55–2:35 unless already at TP1 with runner @ BE.
• Thu (Claims/Philly/LEI): 8:30–10:00 stack can create a trend morning; trade acceptance if a 15m body prints through a level.