Trends still show upward movement; CPI Data this week

13 Mei

So trends that called for upward movement confirmed this upward movement last week. I had mentioned in my last video that the candlestick pattern for May 1st was extremely bullish, the following two days confirmed that movement in my opinion and given that trends called for upward movement, we crossed above the zero line on MACD Momentum into a bullish zone, and we were pushing above that Daily lower high resistance level around 5160, I went long. I did cash that trade out around 5260 for a $5000 trade.

Given the uncertainty of how CPI could come in, I am likely to stick out until I see that data this Wednesday. While I'm not certain what Core CPI will do, and that SHOULD be the main data point we pay attention to, I have concerns based on a 10% hike in gas prices over much of April that Headline CPI could come in above expectations and cause at least an initial panic sell off.

We are nearing the potential for an overbought state on MFI/RSI on the daily, so watch for algo trading around those levels as well, at least on the initial touch. Obviously we rented living space in overbought territory at the beginning of this year, so it doesn't mean we have to reverse at all, especially in this FOMO market.

I continue to see the current conditions as very bullish, in spite of significant concerns I have for the ES Economy overall. While there was a time when the US Markets reflected the state of the US Economy, I think we have a massive disconnect between the two that was caused by the COVID Pandemic. I think the new trend is when the economy looks rough, dump money into Mag 7 / NYFAANG / or basically whatever hyper select group of stocks equals the majority of the market cap out there, which will just push markets higher in spite of economic conditions.

Walmart Earnings on Thursday will be something to watch, moreso as it might show insight into consumer health more than what is actually happening with Walmart.

Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 5251 Uptrend (5/13/2024) Higher High
1Hr - 5241 Downtrend (5/10/2024) Higher Low
2Hr - 5229 Uptrend (5/9/2024) Higher High
3Hr - 5157 Uptrend (5/3/2024) Higher High
4Hr - 5148 Uptrend (5/3/2024) Higher High
6Hr - 5148 Uptrend (5/3/2024) Higher High
12Hr - 5188 Uptrend (5/6/2024) Higher High
Daily - 5166 Downtrend (4/12/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High
Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High

Economic Data;
PPI & Powell Speaking on Tuesday
CPI on Wednesday
Jobs data on Thursday

Earnings;
Home Depot Tuesday
Walmart on Thursday

Geopolitical;
Russia has had a major push into Ukraine, not sure it will matter but there is the potential for a major offensive to pick up pace there.
Israel / Hamas conflict continues to be a concern but doesn't seem to have much influence on markets at the moment.

Overall Sentiment;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Mmmm... really undecided on this one
Long Term - Bullish

Overall, I could see a quick pull back overall this week, but even if this happens I think the market will heal whatever dip we have and we will end higher overall by the end of next week.

Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!

13 Mei

Nota

First sign of weakness in this recent rally. the 30m downtrend is signaling, if we settle below 5245 at the end of this 30m period (11:30am EST) than it will be a lower low. If we signal, but stay above 5245, it'll be a higher low.

14 Mei

Nota

PPI Came in. Much higher than expected for Month over Month. Yikes. If CPI comes in the same way tomorrow be prepared for a massive push south.

14 Mei

Nota

Not a lot of action, but what action is occurring is basically the overall index is going down but the typical Mag7 stocks are up... most safe dumping money into the same ole stocks...

15 Mei

Nota

Well, got that assessment wrong. Headline CPI came in .1% lower month over month than expected. I definitely did not expect that given the 10% gas hike.

28 Mei

Nota

Was considering making a video today, but I will wait until tomorrow at this point. Dow is down, ES is mostly flag, and Nasdaq is creeking slightly higher at .2% as of writing this... but ya know, them Safety Mag 7 are up nearly another 1%. Having not gotten the dip I was looking for in Mid May, I have no open positions at this time. There is some potential for downward movement on ES, but I don't trust it yet. I do have my eye on 6E and NG though. Not quite where I want it yet, but certainly coming into alignment.