September 16th - 5:50am
Please note that we are now using the December contracts (ESZ2025). All levels will now be focused on December, not on September (ESU2025). Yesterday & Weekly Trade Plan looks weird due to the rollover on prices. All of these levels have been updated to reflect the new contract and should align with your trading view ES1 or ESZ2025 charts.
I am not going to dive into yesterday, since the contract rolled over and the trading plan of when I posted has switched and everything is out of sync, but we will not have that issue moving forward until December. This will happen 4x a year, 1x each quarter.
What is our game plan for today? If you have been following me for the past couple of months you will know that I am looking for pullbacks that institutions are manipulating to flush key levels, run stops, then get long. Guess what we have lacked the past 3-4 sessions? Not many pullbacks. Our last good pull back was Wednesday 10th at 3:15pm. This can be frustrating but as a professional trader, I have to take what my edge gives me, and I am always hunting for the highest quality setups. I can go without trading for a day or a week, IF, my edge does not present itself. We have had some low-quality trades that I have gotten some 5pt-8pt trades, but not my typical edge. So why is this happening? Well, Institutions are distributing and not accumulating. Retail traders are chasing in, and we have been going parabolic as FOMO has taken over. The VIX has quietly risen to over 18 and yesterday we had a green day with a green VIX. This Tell's me that Institutions are starting to add Insurance to the upcoming FOMC meeting and the VIX should continue to rise heading into tomorrow's 2pm FOMC meeting.
Let's talk about what levels we can grab some points at today.
Our overnight session low is 6671 with high at 6697. At this point, I cannot chase, and we will get a big sell off at some point this week. When we do, you must let price build a base at a core level below, before just blindly entering at a level.
Key Support Levels - 6692, 6681-83, 6671, 6663, 6657, 6650, 6643
Key Resistance Levels - 6697, 6700, 6709+
Upside targets above are 6700, 6709, 6732 (IF, Bulls really want it)
My main levels I will be watching for a pull back to are 6681-83, 6671, 6643. The white trend line will continue to be a magnet on any pullback, but when we start to really sell off, price can slice through lots of levels below. That is why it is important to be patient and wait for price to build a good base and institutions to start accumulating again.
I will post an update around 10am.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows.
Please note that we are now using the December contracts (ESZ2025). All levels will now be focused on December, not on September (ESU2025). Yesterday & Weekly Trade Plan looks weird due to the rollover on prices. All of these levels have been updated to reflect the new contract and should align with your trading view ES1 or ESZ2025 charts.
I am not going to dive into yesterday, since the contract rolled over and the trading plan of when I posted has switched and everything is out of sync, but we will not have that issue moving forward until December. This will happen 4x a year, 1x each quarter.
What is our game plan for today? If you have been following me for the past couple of months you will know that I am looking for pullbacks that institutions are manipulating to flush key levels, run stops, then get long. Guess what we have lacked the past 3-4 sessions? Not many pullbacks. Our last good pull back was Wednesday 10th at 3:15pm. This can be frustrating but as a professional trader, I have to take what my edge gives me, and I am always hunting for the highest quality setups. I can go without trading for a day or a week, IF, my edge does not present itself. We have had some low-quality trades that I have gotten some 5pt-8pt trades, but not my typical edge. So why is this happening? Well, Institutions are distributing and not accumulating. Retail traders are chasing in, and we have been going parabolic as FOMO has taken over. The VIX has quietly risen to over 18 and yesterday we had a green day with a green VIX. This Tell's me that Institutions are starting to add Insurance to the upcoming FOMC meeting and the VIX should continue to rise heading into tomorrow's 2pm FOMC meeting.
Let's talk about what levels we can grab some points at today.
Our overnight session low is 6671 with high at 6697. At this point, I cannot chase, and we will get a big sell off at some point this week. When we do, you must let price build a base at a core level below, before just blindly entering at a level.
Key Support Levels - 6692, 6681-83, 6671, 6663, 6657, 6650, 6643
Key Resistance Levels - 6697, 6700, 6709+
Upside targets above are 6700, 6709, 6732 (IF, Bulls really want it)
My main levels I will be watching for a pull back to are 6681-83, 6671, 6643. The white trend line will continue to be a magnet on any pullback, but when we start to really sell off, price can slice through lots of levels below. That is why it is important to be patient and wait for price to build a good base and institutions to start accumulating again.
I will post an update around 10am.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows.
Nota
9:45am - Price could not hold the 6682 level and we are moving lower. Any reclaim of 6682 will be bullish. I think we could find a bottom around 6671-74 area. Ideally, we flush 6671 down to 6663 and then enter on reclaim of 6671. Let price find its level and then look to enter on a reclaim of that level or next one above.Nota
10:55am - I have entered into a position at 6668 and a stop at 6665.75. The reclaim of 6671 should keep this basing moving higher. I am looking to exit on the back test of 6682, but price could keep going higher from there. IF, price loses 6666, then we need to flush lower for a move higher. Nota
11:07am - UpdateMy position stopped out and I have re-entered at 6663 with a stop at 6662. Price could very well keep going lower, but price has been trying to build a base for an hour, and I expect us to move higher and retest the 6682 level. The reclaim of 6671 should keep us moving higher. I will move my stop up following the last 15 min candle low. This is my second trade of the day. I will not trade any further today, regardless of if this moves higher or lower. That is my trade plan. 2 trades max per day.
Nota
3:35pm - UpdateToday we got a nice pullback, and I was able to grab 10pts with a very tight stop. The 6671 level became a magnet this afternoon and then we lost it after 3:15pm. Price should still retest the 6682 level in the overnight session. IF, we lose the 6662 daily low, we will need to work down the levels with 6643 being a good spot for points. Be patient and size down tomorrow. I will provide the Daily Trade Plan by 6:30am EST after I get a chance to see the overnight session price action. I do not think we will lose the 6662 low overnight and will most likely head higher to retest 6682 then continue up the levels if we can hold overhead resistance. FOMC at 2pm tomorrow, so expect lots of volatility. I will not be trading after 11:30am. Hopefully I can catch some points in the am.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.