So I just picked previous blow off tops from the last two years:
- 5 of these blow off tops correct around 8%-12% and held the 200 MA:
3 of those touched the moving average and bounced.
2 of them did not even touched the MA.
- 2 of them corrected more than 20% and lost the MA.
Therefore:
- There is high probability of a 2%-3% correction at least (all the previous corrections were 8% + corrections)
- There is a medium probability of a 5%-6% more (3 touched the MA several times and bounced).
- There is a low probability of having a 20%+ correction (only 2 lost the 200 day MA).
From a macro perspective the most concerning thing is rising yields in the long term interest rates which are not being controlled by the Fed, so I think we will have more pain and visit the 200 MA to test the upward trend and find support, which I think we will find given all the stimulus and the economic reopening.
Short term bearish long term bullish
- 5 of these blow off tops correct around 8%-12% and held the 200 MA:
3 of those touched the moving average and bounced.
2 of them did not even touched the MA.
- 2 of them corrected more than 20% and lost the MA.
Therefore:
- There is high probability of a 2%-3% correction at least (all the previous corrections were 8% + corrections)
- There is a medium probability of a 5%-6% more (3 touched the MA several times and bounced).
- There is a low probability of having a 20%+ correction (only 2 lost the 200 day MA).
From a macro perspective the most concerning thing is rising yields in the long term interest rates which are not being controlled by the Fed, so I think we will have more pain and visit the 200 MA to test the upward trend and find support, which I think we will find given all the stimulus and the economic reopening.
Short term bearish long term bullish
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.