Last week we have consolidated, built a cost basis under HTF Edge Top and made a push into new HTF Ranges Value on Wednesday after some news, we made it into the Mean of that range but failed to hold before the open trapping Supply in Value. Thursday held under the Edge and by Friday built up enough supply to flush Holiday Cost basis into lower Value where the selling stopped at the Mean and we started covering, being mid day Friday and End of Month we got strong enough covering to take us all the way back into the Edge/into current Intraday Ranges top which is around 930 - 25 Area.
Question for this week is, was that a strong bid on Friday which will give us a hold and continued pushes into above VAL over the Edge or was it just a retest of this Edge top from below, momentum traders pushed us out on news and now we are back inside 930 - 770s HTF Range ?
Looking at our structure, we had Trend Change on Thursday during RTH Open and for now we have closed Friday in downward correction Trend. This tells us that its possible that we have failed to accept inside new above HTF Range and if that is the case then we could target moves back down towards lower areas of VAH / Mean / VAL and if there will be volume moves under it.
For things to change and to see stability + strength out of here we would need to see a good push over 930s which could hold over AND see a move over 941 - 45 area, without that need to be careful with longs into those areas as our Supply and Sellers are around and over us.
Things have been slow and moves take a while to set up so Current Intraday Range could act as support and we can see price trade back and forth inside it with Holiday Cost basis providing Support, BUT if we do get through that under VAH then we can see further moves down towards Mean and VAL which has another cost basis there that we can try to fill out and it could hold the price around it, to see any more weakness from there we would need to find ourself under VAL and be able to get into that 800 Balance area, it is new Month and we do have Market Moving Data this week so it could happen.
If this will be the case good entry areas for continuation lower could be found around
914 - 10 // 900 - 896 // 869 - 65 // 855 - 51 careful around 824 - 20 and IF we attempt for move into lower Balance could find entries for it at 810 - 06
IF Trend does change and we hold over the Edge OR we hold Current Intraday Range and some of the weekly Data/News will push us over 941 - 45 then we could see moves into above VAL / Mean and would look for Entries around 955 - 59 // 986 - 90 if this will be the case need to be careful with looking for too much continuation over the Mean as there will be selling closer to above VAH we get and especially if we see pushes into/over it as there is more supply above, if move higher happens we would probably look to stay under 630 - 20s and If Holiday Cost Basis holds as Support the could also find long entries at 896 - 900 area after we hold under but need to be careful with looking for big moves and try to grab area to area as market moves and back fills very efficiently lately so watch out for back and forth trading while its moving towards targets.
Question for this week is, was that a strong bid on Friday which will give us a hold and continued pushes into above VAL over the Edge or was it just a retest of this Edge top from below, momentum traders pushed us out on news and now we are back inside 930 - 770s HTF Range ?
Looking at our structure, we had Trend Change on Thursday during RTH Open and for now we have closed Friday in downward correction Trend. This tells us that its possible that we have failed to accept inside new above HTF Range and if that is the case then we could target moves back down towards lower areas of VAH / Mean / VAL and if there will be volume moves under it.
For things to change and to see stability + strength out of here we would need to see a good push over 930s which could hold over AND see a move over 941 - 45 area, without that need to be careful with longs into those areas as our Supply and Sellers are around and over us.
Things have been slow and moves take a while to set up so Current Intraday Range could act as support and we can see price trade back and forth inside it with Holiday Cost basis providing Support, BUT if we do get through that under VAH then we can see further moves down towards Mean and VAL which has another cost basis there that we can try to fill out and it could hold the price around it, to see any more weakness from there we would need to find ourself under VAL and be able to get into that 800 Balance area, it is new Month and we do have Market Moving Data this week so it could happen.
If this will be the case good entry areas for continuation lower could be found around
914 - 10 // 900 - 896 // 869 - 65 // 855 - 51 careful around 824 - 20 and IF we attempt for move into lower Balance could find entries for it at 810 - 06
IF Trend does change and we hold over the Edge OR we hold Current Intraday Range and some of the weekly Data/News will push us over 941 - 45 then we could see moves into above VAL / Mean and would look for Entries around 955 - 59 // 986 - 90 if this will be the case need to be careful with looking for too much continuation over the Mean as there will be selling closer to above VAH we get and especially if we see pushes into/over it as there is more supply above, if move higher happens we would probably look to stay under 630 - 20s and If Holiday Cost Basis holds as Support the could also find long entries at 896 - 900 area after we hold under but need to be careful with looking for big moves and try to grab area to area as market moves and back fills very efficiently lately so watch out for back and forth trading while its moving towards targets.
Nota
RTH Open gave an HTF Edge into VAH flush but VAH Cost Basis held and volume got bought up and we rotated back, 896 - 900 area was the spot for re - entry back inside Current Intraday Range after failed Cost Basis break. We got a push/hold and continuation out of Edge towards above VAL and now we are sort of in between areas so it could be a tricky spot to trade around, we did get a trend change on Hourly's but the push today took a lot to accomplish so we need to be careful with looking for continuation higher too soon, at the same time we can't expect big break down from here either while we are holding over 920 - 25 - 30 areas as that is our previous Current Intraday Range top and holding above = Stability and at the same time holding under new ranges Value = Weakness so it could take some time to resolve things around here and show us if we accept in this range to continue into its Value or we build up Supply again and come back under the Edge into Previous Range. We are now inside 930 - 970s +/- Intraday Range and while we are holding inside top of it remains a target to test. Inside this range while we wait we could find Balance so we probably want to stay away from trading Intraday Edges and let size traders work those areas, we want to be trading around the middle areas which means IF we get moves under 945 - 41 that hold over Intraday Edge then we could see longs from 41 - 45 back in towards Middle and 955 - 59, over 55 - 59 we want to be careful with longs or looking for too much continuation as there could be selling and we could see short trades from failures over 55 - 59 which would take us back towards 45 - 41 and under if there is volume for that. Careful as those moves can take a while to properly set up while in Balance.
To think higher prices into above Value towards Mean/VAH we would need to take out and hold over 70s which could take time if its to happen, ideally we wait for that, see strength over it to be able to work from 986 In.
For bigger moves lower we want to build up here and come back inside under 25 - 20s then we can again work with shorts from 914 - 10 Down until either of those we could expect Balance and watch out for moves outside/into Intraday Edges to come back in.
Nota
Failure to get continuation over 986 - 90 into 6000 - 6004 and over will = Weakness and could give rotation back into lower intraday range which was 970 - 930s if this happens can aim for a move into 959 - 55 and possibly under towards 45 - 41. IF Volume will be strong could see move all the way back into HTF Edge and inside Fridays Intraday Range back to under 914 - 10. For us to think higher prices we would need to hold over 975 and get strong push through 990 that would hold and show balance between 90 and 6000 to show acceptance in current Value, if not we can rotate lower. Holding over 965 - 70s could keep us in grindy balance over but if volume comes in to take it out we can target lower areas.
Nota
Flushes towards VAL held and now price is in Balance inside Value. We are in 975 - 6015 Intraday Range and until we take out 975 - 70 area with Supply above then we can stay and grind inside current balance around the Mean. Staying in current range as long as VAL holds will target moves Into/Through the Mean towards VAH but we have our sellers and Supply closer we get to VAH as mentioned in original prep so this means careful trading and curve expectations as price can keep rotating back and forth, Our current balance area is 974 - 988 +/- so every time we spend time inside it without breaking down we could see moves from 90 towards 6000 - 6004, we see that for now every push fails to reach as we have selling inside the Mean but we hold long enough and at some point it will reach be it today or not. Need to be careful with looking for big moves from here and too much continuation over 6000 as we can keep rotating back and forth through the Mean. Eventually if this keeps up we should reach VAH or close to it and get a better move lower from it back towards VAL but this can take TIME to play out.Nota
Something to watch for tomorrow is as long as we hold at/over VAL ( at least over 960s ) and we find ourself over 975 in RTH then there will be a chance to get continuation through the Mean towards VAH, how high can we get would be for us to find out but if things hold tonight and after open tomorrow then our Current Intraday Range targets still remain at 6000 - 04 and if we get the juice to push for Intraday Range top at 6015 - 20. I have an area marked from when we made our way down at 6024 - low 30s, not saying this will be reachable but could see move towards it. If not at least a visit to 6000 - 04 with possible peak above it would be in the cards as long as we dont return under 959 - 55 and start balancing there. Of course we could always continue to balance between Mean and VAL so be careful but if the push plays out then we could find entries at 986 - 90 area and maybe 6000 - 04 if there will be volume for it but that area will be riskier. Ideally this would happen during RTH as we would need RTH Volume for this move to happen. If we fall out of VAL then we need to be careful with looking for too much downside as we could just continue to balance but under VAL above HTF Edge. Nota
We have few days of Supply which built up inside Value, yesterday gave a pop over the Mean into Intraday Range Edge at 6015 - 20 area but failed to tag VAH and instead of holding prices we got rotation back to VAL and eventually end of day break and flush into HTF Edge. We knew we had bigger supply and sellers who could be active closer we got into VAH so anything over 6000 - 04 was risky for continuation. We had some news or negative information impacting the prices after mid day as well. Going into end of the week we have again changed trend on the Hourlys after yesterdays flush and hold under 980s, Globex has pulled back into VAL area and we are consolidating here around 970 - 75 Intraday Range. Will we have a slow day to close the week or will we see some fireworks ? We have showed multiple failures in this new HTF Value, we have built up Supply and we have a changed trend back to weakness, few things we can watch for today. IF we do happen to hold VAL we would need to be holding over 960 AND get over 980 to start holding over that to change trend again which if we do then could again see balance inside Value which would mean either grind around between Mean with possible another attempt at 6000 - 04. Or this correction trend can stick and we could see a push out of VAL back under 959 - 55 If that happens that implies more Weakness and yes we could just balance under VAL in 970 - 930 Intraday Range but we have to remember its Friday and we have volume built up above us with no upside, if it starts selling out we can see a move back into lower HTF Edge and inside last weeks Current Intraday Range with possible move for lower VAL and maybe push into Value? under 930 - 25 we could see continuation to target that Holiday cost basis and then depending how much of a move we get into/through it. 
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Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.