ES Update, 104% China Tariff Edition, lol.

8 Apr

As you can see, MFI hit overbought before open. Unfortunately, I didn't have time to post before work.

Stupid algos pumping before bad news again, they even pumped China, so I bought some MCHI (China ETF) puts in the morning. WHy would anyone pump CHina before a tariff announcement?!?!

I don't see Xi or Trump backing down, if anyone falters, it'll be COngress. The issue is that it will take a 2/3 majority in both houses to override a veto, so they probably won't be able to muster up enough support until next week at the earliest Then Trump can sit on the bill for 10 days before he vetos.

There's not a parts supplier in China that's gonna pay 104% tariff, which means stop ship on everything. And we're looking at bare minimum of 11 days before tariffs can be repealed, probably gonna be at least 3 weeks. Even at that pace, it's gonna create a shipping backlog, empty shelves, parts shortage, and temporary layoffs at manufacturing plants just like COVID did.

What's this all mean? IF YOU NEED ANYTHING THAT'S MADE IN CHINA, GO SHOPPING RIGHT NOW! I'm not kidding. It may cause issues even with stuff like frozen dinners because China makes all of the containers.

ANyways, the algos screwed up again. RSI probably goes deep into oversold again. We get a huge ass bounce when COngress gets their shit together in a week or two. Even then, some companies will have lingering effect because I can guarantee there will be a shipping backlog when the tariff is lifted.

8 Apr

Dagangan aktif

I have May $47 MCHI puts I bought this morning. I went through my stock list to look for puts, and everything had high premiums except MCHI for some reason. Maybe because it went up this morning? Paid $2.35, now $1.78 in the money not including AH.

I was actually hoping for weekly, but everything expiring Friday had high premiums and I didn't know how far the market would drop.

8 Apr

Nota

Amazon has not price in tariffs yet, so you can order stuff right now before shit hits the fan. Keep in mind that a lot of things come in containers that are made in China, so food items will be impacted too.

Note: Toilet paper is made in the US (along with packing paper and moving boxes. I checked, lol)

8 Apr

Nota

I really don't think things have sunk in with the general public yet, I was at Lowe's earlier and no panic buying. Talked to my boss before I left, and he didn't even know.... and we work for a manufacturer. (I'm in R&D, not a plant.) I told him to expect plant shutdowns next week.

I could wind up getting laid off if this BS lasts more than 3 or 4 months, but I guess that means I'll have to day trade, lol.

9 Apr

Nota

WELL CRAP!

Hang Seng futures are up 3% right now, and it appears to be more than just a gap fill attempt. I did the math and exports to US is only 3% of China's GDP. So the whole trade deal is probably priced in for them by now.

The thing is, they have rising unemployment and stagnating growth so maybe I'll get lucky and it'll dip a little later tonight. MCHI dropped so much today, I still make money even if Hang Seng futures go up 3%.

Anyways, for the tariff trade, I think the focus needs to be on companies that rely heavily on Chinese manufacturing or parts like AAPL (90% of iPhones are made in China), GM (you can't make a car if you're missing even one part), any company that relies on rare earth metals, etc. Look for exposure.

Oh well, second day in a row where I go to sleep wishing I had closed out my trade, lol. I guess that's why I'm doing small trades. I did make money on my GLD trade though, and probably a little on this one too. Just not maximizing the potential of this tank.

9 Apr

Nota

Also, US is going into recession anyways, govt spending is part of GDP. The tariffs hurt the US more than the foreign countries because they lose one trading partner, the US is losing ALL trading partners.

Also, bond yields are up. No rate cut with tariff induced inflation coming.