ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (July10-14)

10 Jul 2023

SUMMARY

• ES finished the week with a gain of 0.99 % after trading in a range of 71 pts.
  
• ES closed back below the Aug 16th high
  
• ES closed below the daily 9 ema
  
• First support now 21 ema
  
• 10 year yield broke out last week. Now above 4%
  
• Aug 16th High proving to be solid resisance
  
• Earnings begins season Wed/Thurs with the big banks.
  
• Bullish trend remains intact above the HTF 618 Fib retracement (4378)
  
• CPI data due out Wednesday & PPI Thursday
  
• Buy the dip is back with ATH in play.
  

ECONOMIC EVENTS

MON US Wholesale Inventories, Fed's Barr & Mester Speak
TUES Nothing Notable
WED US CPI, Fed's Barkin, Bostic, Mester & Kashari speak, BoC Rate Decision & EIA Crude
THUR OPEC Monthly Report, US Initial Jobless Claims & US PPI
FRI University of Mich Sentiment

EARNINGS

MON Nothing Notable
TUES Nothing Notable
WED Nothing Notable
THUR DAL, FAST, PEP
FRI C, JPM, STT, UNH, WFC

BULLISH NOTES

• ES above the HTF 618 Fib RT
  
• EMAs are stacked.
  
• Potential bounce off 21 ema
  
• ATH is now in play.
  
• Earnings momentum will begin next week
  
• Potential positive reaction to CPI & PPI
  
• TSLA and AAPL have huge whole number targets.
  
• Buy the dip is back in favour.
  
• Market breath has improved.
  

BEARISH NOTES

• Second rejection at Aug 16th high resistance
  
• Potential double top at the Aug 16th high.
  
• Potential break below 21 ema
  
• MEGAS are in resistance zones
  
• Potential shock event (War, banks, rate hikes)
  
• Potential negative reaction to CPI & PPI
  
• The Dec 13th high breakout point has not been re-tested yet.
  
• Price is stretched from the weekly emas and 200 sma
  

11 Jul 2023

Nota

ES_F Sold off today but bounced off the 21 ema at the top of the green box, closing back at the 9 ema. Price needs to clear the 9ema and Aug 16th high for bullish continuation. A break above 4500 would make a move to the 1.13 Fib X likely. If price breaks down below the 21 ema next support is the HTF 618 Fib. Below the 618 Fib a move back to the Dec 13th high would be likely.

14 Jul 2023

Nota

ES_F has cleared the 4500 level and the Aug 16th high. This puts the 1.13 Fib X in play. I would expect resistance in this zone. If price breaks though look to the 1.272 Fib X at 4700 as the next target. On a pull back first support would be the Aug 16th high and the 21 ema below that.