Fundamentals (what can move ES)
• 08:30 ET – U.S. New Residential Construction (Housing Starts/Permits). First move risk right at the print; can nudge yields and risk appetite. We’ll let the initial spike settle and then act on the HTF levels below. 
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Key levels from your charts
Numbers rounded to the quarter where needed.
• PDH: 6484.25
• PDL: 6456.00
• ONH: 6475.25
• ONL: 6462.00
• RTH VWAP (today): 6466.50
• PMH / Asia H cluster: 6470.5–6471.75
• 30-min supply / OB: 6479–6485 (overlaps PDH)
• Liquidity/defense zone (“strong low”/Mon swing): 6452–6456
Think of 6468–6472 as the intraday “equilibrium” band we’ve been ping-ponging around; acceptance away from this band is what should start the 15+ pt drive.
Context: We press into the 30-min supply shelf that capped NYPM today.
Trigger: Price trades 6479–6485, stalls (wicks/absorption on Bookmap, cumulative delta fails to make new highs), then reclaims below 6471–6472 (PMH area).
Entry style: Stop-market on the reclaim or limit into a micro pullback after the failed pop.
Invalidation: Above 6486.50 (clear acceptance above PDH/supply).
Targets:
6468–6470 (back to equilibrium),
6462 (ONL),
6456 (PDL / strong-low).
From ~6482 to 6467 = 15 pts; stretch to 6456 = 26 pts.
Order-flow tells: Offers replenish 6480–6485; iceberg/absorption on up-ticks; delta divergence into the level.
Timing
08:30 ET data: stand aside for the first 2–5 minutes; let the impulse show its hand, then look for our triggers.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
NY AM window: 09:45–11:30 ET.
NY PM window: 13:30–15:30 ET (if morning doesn’t give clean structure).
• 08:30 ET – U.S. New Residential Construction (Housing Starts/Permits). First move risk right at the print; can nudge yields and risk appetite. We’ll let the initial spike settle and then act on the HTF levels below. 
⸻
Key levels from your charts
Numbers rounded to the quarter where needed.
• PDH: 6484.25
• PDL: 6456.00
• ONH: 6475.25
• ONL: 6462.00
• RTH VWAP (today): 6466.50
• PMH / Asia H cluster: 6470.5–6471.75
• 30-min supply / OB: 6479–6485 (overlaps PDH)
• Liquidity/defense zone (“strong low”/Mon swing): 6452–6456
Think of 6468–6472 as the intraday “equilibrium” band we’ve been ping-ponging around; acceptance away from this band is what should start the 15+ pt drive.
Context: We press into the 30-min supply shelf that capped NYPM today.
Trigger: Price trades 6479–6485, stalls (wicks/absorption on Bookmap, cumulative delta fails to make new highs), then reclaims below 6471–6472 (PMH area).
Entry style: Stop-market on the reclaim or limit into a micro pullback after the failed pop.
Invalidation: Above 6486.50 (clear acceptance above PDH/supply).
Targets:
6468–6470 (back to equilibrium),
6462 (ONL),
6456 (PDL / strong-low).
From ~6482 to 6467 = 15 pts; stretch to 6456 = 26 pts.
Order-flow tells: Offers replenish 6480–6485; iceberg/absorption on up-ticks; delta divergence into the level.
Timing
08:30 ET data: stand aside for the first 2–5 minutes; let the impulse show its hand, then look for our triggers.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
NY AM window: 09:45–11:30 ET.
NY PM window: 13:30–15:30 ET (if morning doesn’t give clean structure).
Nota
2) Flush & reclaim long from 6452–6456 (strong-low cluster)Context: We wash out the lows into PDL/“strong-low”, sweep liquidity, then reclaim value.
• Trigger: Drive into 6452–6456, then reclaim 6461–6462 (ONL) with buyers holding above VWAP on the retake.
• Entry style: Stop-market through the reclaim or limit on first HL after the sweep.
• Invalidation: 6449.50 (no acceptance below the sweep).
• Targets:
1. 6468–6470 (VWAP/equilibrium),
2. 6475 (ONH),
3. 6484 (PDH).
From ~6455 to 6470 = 15 pts; full run to PDH ≈ +29 pts.
Order-flow tells: Bids stepping in 6454–6456; quick absorption of sells; green bubbles building and tape speed picking up on the reclaim.
Nota
If neither setup printsNo trade. We’re not taking mid-range chops or 3–7 pt fades. We’ll wait for either (a) a push/fail at 6479–6485 or (b) a proper sweep/reclaim at 6452–6456.
If you want to contact me here is my Discord channel discord.gg/wPHfYgv892
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
If you want to contact me here is my Discord channel discord.gg/wPHfYgv892
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.