Winter is coming - Part 6: Ethereum vs Bitcoin

22 Nov 2020

Every year since 2015 ETHBTC was at a relative buy point around winter time - mostly in December. It's a strange cyclical pattern that keeps repeating for mysterious reasons. This year, I would argue, the ETHBTC ratio has the HIGHEST PROBABILITY of repeating this pattern of any other year in its history. I make this statement entirely based on technicals.

- We have a 5 year trendline supporting price
- Horizontal support from 2016
- Consistent cyclical tendency for the last 5 years
- ETH 2.0 (for me this is the least important, believe it or not... even if it may be the entire reason we could see a rally)

The first time I noticed this seasonal pattern was in November 2017. I converted all of my Bitcoin into Ethereum the same time I published the chart below:

In August this year, I published my view on Grayscale Trust's product, ETHE. You could find it here:

17 Dis 2020

Nota

Retesting .0288 - major structure. I expect ETH to start playing some serious catch up on performance

30 Dis 2020

Nota

This seasonal pattern is really being put to the test for the next couple of weeks. .023 is the last support. A close above .031 would likely signal a reversal of strength.

2015, 2016, and 2019 saw reversals in the 4th week of December through the first week of January.

4 Jan 2021

Nota

20 Jan 2021

Nota

If long stay long... don't get cute trading in and out.

Eth currently in this little range and likely ready for 1500s:

21 Jan 2021

Nota

now breaking the channel as BTC is testing the 32k spot once again. Notable

7 Mei 2021

Nota

The most interesting thing about ETHBTC is the birds eye view of the quarterly chart. I could see it hitting former highs eventually and possibly breaking out to new highs.

The blue zone would be an add or a reload spot if it gets there:

10 Mei 2021

Nota

Welcome to the first big resistance in the ratio. Prepare for a possible rotation. Long term still bullish, but short term BTC could regain an advantage here.

23 Mei 2021

Nota

That ended up being substantial resistance and also a medium term top in crypto - not just the ratio, which isn't surprising given that a rollover in ETHBTC would represent a risk-off environment. This will some time to recover... prepare bids at prices you don't expect to get reached. Next target in the ratio is somewhere in the 40s where I'd explore converting back to ETH (either from USDT or BTC)

13 Okt 2021

Nota