ETH - 2022's Bear Case PA vs 2017
First things first,
Bitcoin has technically fallen into bear market territory as price slipped below last year's low, forming a lower low on the monthly timeframe. Despite this, Ethereum continues to trade above the key level of $1700 (last year's bear market low), therefore being way more bullish from a macro trend analysis than Bitcoin itself (I've recently wrote an article diving into ETH/BTC).
Now, let's take a bars pattern and picture it from high-low (in 2017, a 92% drawdown) and adjust the ultimate low to be at $1420 (2017 ATH). This leads us crumbling down -70% from this cycle's high of $4850 and -23% from current price. This would last for the next couple months with a bottom/capitulation by October/November.
According to the very explosive bull market of 2017 with a blow off top in the end, this could potentially be ETH's "worse case scenario".
Another technical indicator to point out is the RSI (at 50) with levels not seen since the March 2020 crash, which is quite interesting.
Let's take into account the fundamentals of the second biggest decentralized blockchain in the market:
-Most developers/transaction fees/dapps
-PoS transiction likely this year
-EIP-1559 every tx fee burns
-Post merge deflation
With all of these aligned to build a bias, the supply and demand will dramatically have impact in the price of ETH, therefore the risk of not being exposed is higher than being, due to the fact that fundamentals is the leading indicator and at the same time the charts at higher timeframes are bullish at support.
Keep your risk managed,
cryptofunded
Bitcoin has technically fallen into bear market territory as price slipped below last year's low, forming a lower low on the monthly timeframe. Despite this, Ethereum continues to trade above the key level of $1700 (last year's bear market low), therefore being way more bullish from a macro trend analysis than Bitcoin itself (I've recently wrote an article diving into ETH/BTC).
Now, let's take a bars pattern and picture it from high-low (in 2017, a 92% drawdown) and adjust the ultimate low to be at $1420 (2017 ATH). This leads us crumbling down -70% from this cycle's high of $4850 and -23% from current price. This would last for the next couple months with a bottom/capitulation by October/November.
According to the very explosive bull market of 2017 with a blow off top in the end, this could potentially be ETH's "worse case scenario".
Another technical indicator to point out is the RSI (at 50) with levels not seen since the March 2020 crash, which is quite interesting.
Let's take into account the fundamentals of the second biggest decentralized blockchain in the market:
-Most developers/transaction fees/dapps
-PoS transiction likely this year
-EIP-1559 every tx fee burns
-Post merge deflation
With all of these aligned to build a bias, the supply and demand will dramatically have impact in the price of ETH, therefore the risk of not being exposed is higher than being, due to the fact that fundamentals is the leading indicator and at the same time the charts at higher timeframes are bullish at support.
Keep your risk managed,
cryptofunded
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