We are still deep in the sh-...downtrend channel, facing bear flag after bear flag, dead cat bounce after dead cat bounce.
I can't count waves on this with any confidence because there are just too many counts that seem right.
In the end all I have is my channel support, channel resistance (green), and my long term support lines (red) that reach back to the days of $400 eth.
I am selling a piece of my position on confirmation of this bear flag breaking, and looking to ladder buys from low 700s down to low 600s. I am too risk adverse to pray for buys to be filled in the 500s, even though I can see it reaching that level.