ETH/USD – Multi-Degree Terminal Advance: Daily ⑤ of C

ETH/USDT – Multi-Degree Terminal Advance: Daily Wave ⑤ of C Inside Weekly Wave C (Ending Diagonal)


1️⃣ Higher-Timeframe Context (Weekly)

ETH has been unfolding a large corrective A-B-C structure from the all-time high.

The current rally is Wave C of that correction.

Structural note: On the weekly, Wave 4 overlaps Wave 1 → violates standard impulse rules → the entire Wave C is taking the form of an Ending Diagonal.

Why this matters:

Ending diagonals appear in terminal positions (Wave 5 of an impulse or Wave C of a correction).

They often end with a throw-over above the upper trendline, followed by sharp and deep reversals.

2️⃣ Intermediate-Timeframe Context (Daily)

On the daily, we are in:

Wave ⑤ of daily Wave C.

That daily Wave C is also the final leg of weekly Wave C.

Implication:
Two degrees (daily & weekly) are scheduled to terminate together → high-probability major turning point.

3️⃣ Structure & Internal Wave Count

From the IV(B) low in April, ETH has advanced in five overlapping sub-waves:

Wave 1 – steady breakout leg.

Wave 2 – shallow pullback.

Wave 3 – strongest rally to date.

Wave 4 – pullback overlapping Wave 1 territory → confirms diagonal.

Wave 5 – ongoing final push into target zone.

Internals of each wave show a-b-c formations, consistent with diagonal rules.

4️⃣ Fibonacci Target Confluence

Anchor: IV(B) low → Wave 3 high → Wave 4 low

1.618 extension: $4,531 → first resistance.

2.000 extension: $5,102 → primary target.

Upper wedge projection / throw-over: $5,500–$5,650.

These levels also align with weekly fib projections for Wave C → creating a multi-timeframe resistance cluster.

5️⃣ Momentum & Divergence

MACD (Daily): Histogram making lower highs while price makes higher highs → early bearish divergence.

RSI (Daily & Weekly): Approaching overbought with flattening momentum → consistent with terminal phases.

Volume: Gradual contraction during the advance; watch for final spike on throw-over.

6️⃣ Scenarios
A) Terminal Top Scenario (Base Case)

Price completes Wave ⑤ of C inside the $4,531–$5,102 box.

Possible throw-over into $5,500–$5,650 on ETF hype.

Followed by swift rejection back inside wedge → break of Wave-4 low confirms top.

Targets after confirmation:

First: Wedge base / 0.382 retrace (~$3,800).

Next: 0.5 retrace (~$3,500).

Extended: Origin of diagonal (~$2,900).

B) ETF Extension Scenario

Price consolidates above $5,100 and pushes toward $5,500–$5,650.

Still part of Wave ⑤, just a stretched terminal before reversal.

Same confirmation rules: break of Wave-4 low validates reversal.

7️⃣ Invalidation & Risk Levels

Bearish invalidation: Break of Wave-4 low = high-probability top.

Bullish invalidation: Sustained breakout + consolidation above $5,650 would require re-evaluating the diagonal scenario.

8️⃣ Trade Plan (Non-Advice)

Aggressive fade: Short into $4,531–$5,102, add near $5,500–$5,650 if reached, stop above wedge throw-over.

Conservative: Wait for daily close back inside wedge and break of Wave-4 low, then short pullbacks.

Positioning note: Size down in diagonals — volatility spikes at turns.

9️⃣ Key Chart Annotations for Publishing

Wedge trendlines from Wave-II(B) low to Wave-IV(B) low.

Label 1–2–3–4–5 (with a-b-c internals) on daily.

Highlight $4,531, $5,102, and $5,500–$5,650 zones.

Mark Wave-4 low and wedge base with "Top Confirmed Below Here".

Add MACD/RSI divergence notes in top-right.

📌 Summary

ETH is in the final stages of a multi-degree ending diagonal:

Daily Wave ⑤ of C inside Weekly Wave C.

Both degrees likely terminate in $4,531–$5,102, with throw-over potential to $5,500–$5,650.

Once confirmed, expect a fast, deep retrace — this is a terminal pattern with macro top potential.