EUR/CHF: The Trap Is Set!

EUR/CHF Full Analysis

1. Seasonality
EUR: Historically weak in August–September. The 20y and 15y datasets confirm a negative seasonal bias in September.
CHF: Stronger tendency in August–September, historically supported as a safe-haven currency, with September statistically positive.
👉 Seasonal bias: short EUR/CHF (weak EUR vs strong CHF).

2. Retail Sentiment
55% of retail traders are long EUR/CHF, while 45% are short.
👉 Slight long retail positioning = contrarian bearish signal.

3. COT Report (19 August 2025)
Euro: Non-commercial net long at 252k vs 133k short (+6.4k new longs, +3.1k new shorts). Still bullish momentum, but slowing down as commercials are selling.
CHF: Non-commercial net short (6k longs vs 33k shorts). Strong bearish imbalance, but commercials are long CHF (hedging), reinforcing CHF’s safe-haven status in case of risk-off correction.
👉 COT shows overweight Euro longs and heavy CHF shorts, raising risk of a future reversal in favor of CHF.

4. Technicals
Structure: Clear rejection from weekly supply zone 0.9435–0.9450 with a bearish engulfing.
Daily RSI cooling after strong impulse → room for further downside.
Possible pullback toward 0.9415–0.9425 (Fib 0.62–0.705) before continuation lower.
Technical targets: 0.9330–0.9315 (daily demand zone), extended to 0.9260.
Invalidation: Weekly close above 0.9450.

📌 Conclusion:
Seasonality, retail sentiment, and price action align for a bearish EUR/CHF bias. The COT highlights an overcrowded long Euro vs short CHF positioning, opening space for a structural rebound of the Swiss Franc. Technicals confirm: wait for a pullback to 0.9420 to short, targeting 0.9330/0.9260.