EURNZD Pending Short

5 Dis 2019

we have a turnaround in the risk sentiment today from off to on from Asia session all the way to U.S.

The catalyst is
-better progress in U.S & China Trade Deal
-better poll for UK election for Conservative Party


However, with that being said, the risk on currency such as
AUD is still in red today from
* disappointed Retail Sales m/m
* disappointed Trade Balance
+
* disappointed GDP data from yesterday

basically, the consecutive negative datas have eliminated the previous bullish stance on AUD from the RBA statement and now even the risk on sentiment can’t save it!

AUD is a good currency to sell.

On the other hand, EUR is still on my watchlist to sell.

JPY & CHF although is good to sell atm, but we’re heading into Thursday & weekend is coming, the current risk on sentiment is highly poetical based and with the NFP coming this Friday, the sentiment might turned around all together.

NZD is also having a good day from the RBNZ comment and the current risk on sentiment, in fact, NZD has been one of the strong currencies all together.

BOC rate statement and rate held today - but the stance was much hawkish than dovish, this on top of the fact the oil output is being cut by Russia and perhaps more by OPEC in the near future has caused oil price to go up and hence, helped CAD.

Also, the fact that USD is weak now also helped CAD.

WE will have to wait for the Friday job report for CAD before we can get in, but now our stance is a strong buy for CAD once we can clear out the job report data.

My trade call today was to buy NZD to ride on the current risk on sentiment and central bank RBNZ hawkish stance

but i don’t want to go against JPY & CHF because the sentiment can shift any moment + the weekend is coming.

instead, i’m interested to sell

EUR - because the current risk on sentiment + fundamental weakness
AUD - because the weakness fundamentally and uneffet if the risk sentiment turns off

EURNZD SHORT

OR

AUDNZD SHORT

10 Dis 2019

Nota

I canceled this trade and also the AUDNZD trade for the same reason that the jam-packed economic data week will change the sentiment swiftly and greatly, and ti's better to stay flat in NZD because risk sentiment can push/drop NZD promptly as NZD doe snot have any internal strength!

11 Dis 2019

Nota

I still like the idea of shorting EURNZD as fundamentally, NZD started to pick up even better after government plan to increase infrastructure budget and also as a high IR currency, meanwhile, EUR continued to slide down due to fundamental weakness and the result of UK election this week + potential tariff by Trump.

All in all, this week we will have FOMC, ECB meeting and UK election - so although the idea is good, i'm going to change the entry/exit to something much wider to leave myself some safe zone.

short
@ 1.7096
sl @ 1.7368
p @ 1.6445