EURNZD Bearish Reversal Confirmed: Break and Retest Below Key Su

🧠 Market Context & Structure:
Trend Analysis: The pair is currently in a bearish structure. This is evident from lower highs and lower lows forming after a failed bullish breakout attempt.

Key Zone: A supply zone (highlighted in red) around 1.90198 – 1.90750 has acted as a strong resistance. Price was rejected here after retesting.

Break of Structure (BoS): A clear bearish breakout below the ascending trendline and the horizontal support confirms a shift in sentiment.

📉 Indicators & Confluences:
EMA Analysis:

EMA 50 (red): 1.90757

EMA 200 (blue): 1.90728

Price is trading below both EMAs, which confirms bearish momentum. Also, a bearish EMA crossover (50 crossing below 200) may be forming or has just occurred — a death cross, which further supports downside bias.

🎯 Trade Setup Breakdown (Bearish Bias):
Entry: Around 1.89760 (current price)

Stop Loss: Above the supply zone (~1.9020 - 1.9070)

Take Profit Target: Around 1.86035 (highlighted in green), aligning with previous demand zone or measured move.

Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR): Estimated at ~3:1, making this a favorable setup.

🔽 Technical Patterns:
Bear Flag / Rising Wedge: The broken ascending pattern suggests a bearish continuation.

Retest Confirmation: Price retested the broken structure before continuing down — classic bearish retest behavior.

✅ Conclusion:
This is a textbook bearish setup supported by:

A failed breakout and structure shift

Resistance at a key supply zone

Break and retest of support

Price under both EMAs (bearish confirmation)

📌 Bias: Bearish
📌 Invalidation Level: Close above 1.9075
📌 Next Support Zone: 1.8600–1.8550 range