EUR/USD: Tech outlook and review...
Weekly gain/loss: - 63 pips
Weekly closing price: 1.1758
Despite weekly action seen trading from resistance at 1.1871, price has yet to generate anything noteworthy to the downside. A similar picture can be seen on the US dollar index (USDX), only inverse from a weekly support drawn in at 11854. A violation of the current resistance level directly exposes another resistance pegged at 1.2044 (not seen on the screen), whereas a move south from current price could see the unit drive into a large support area at 1.1533-1.1278.
Down on the daily timeframe, demand at 1.1650-1.1733 elbowed its way back into the picture early last week and held firm. If this area caves in, a nearby support is seen lurking below at 1.1615. In addition to this, traders may have also noticed that the USDX is trading from daily demand at 11899-11932, which may suggest buyer weakness from 1.1650-1.1733.
A quick recap of Friday’s sessions on the H4 timeframe shows the shared currency inched higher, marginally closing the day above the mid-level resistance 1.1750. For breakout traders looking to buy here, you may want to take note that there’s limited upside potential from this angle. Directly above sits a supply positioned at 1.1792-1.1777, which intersects with not only a 61.8% Fib resistance at 1.1778 (taken from the high 1.1847), but also a channel resistance extended from the high 1.1910 and the psychological handle 1.18. Further adding to this, we can see that the USDX H4 candles are trading from a trendline support extended from the low 11853.
Suggestions: While it’s tempting to look for a shorting opportunity from the noted H4 supply given its surrounding confluence, one still has to remain cognizant of the current daily demand! For that reason we’re going to approach this market conservatively. Waiting for additional H4 candle confirmation to form from the H4 supply mentioned above at 1.1792-1.1777 in the shape of a full, or near-full-bodied bearish candle, is the safer route to take we believe.
Data points to consider: No high-impacting events scheduled to be released today.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.1792-1.1777 (waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bearish candle to form – in the shape of either a full, or near-full-bodied candle – is advised, stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s wick).
Weekly closing price: 1.1758
Despite weekly action seen trading from resistance at 1.1871, price has yet to generate anything noteworthy to the downside. A similar picture can be seen on the US dollar index (USDX), only inverse from a weekly support drawn in at 11854. A violation of the current resistance level directly exposes another resistance pegged at 1.2044 (not seen on the screen), whereas a move south from current price could see the unit drive into a large support area at 1.1533-1.1278.
Down on the daily timeframe, demand at 1.1650-1.1733 elbowed its way back into the picture early last week and held firm. If this area caves in, a nearby support is seen lurking below at 1.1615. In addition to this, traders may have also noticed that the USDX is trading from daily demand at 11899-11932, which may suggest buyer weakness from 1.1650-1.1733.
A quick recap of Friday’s sessions on the H4 timeframe shows the shared currency inched higher, marginally closing the day above the mid-level resistance 1.1750. For breakout traders looking to buy here, you may want to take note that there’s limited upside potential from this angle. Directly above sits a supply positioned at 1.1792-1.1777, which intersects with not only a 61.8% Fib resistance at 1.1778 (taken from the high 1.1847), but also a channel resistance extended from the high 1.1910 and the psychological handle 1.18. Further adding to this, we can see that the USDX H4 candles are trading from a trendline support extended from the low 11853.
Suggestions: While it’s tempting to look for a shorting opportunity from the noted H4 supply given its surrounding confluence, one still has to remain cognizant of the current daily demand! For that reason we’re going to approach this market conservatively. Waiting for additional H4 candle confirmation to form from the H4 supply mentioned above at 1.1792-1.1777 in the shape of a full, or near-full-bodied bearish candle, is the safer route to take we believe.
Data points to consider: No high-impacting events scheduled to be released today.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.1792-1.1777 (waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bearish candle to form – in the shape of either a full, or near-full-bodied candle – is advised, stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s wick).
Penafian
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