SOME ANALYSES FOR E/U

Technical Analysis:
E/U is currently difficult to anticipate because of many reasons.

Price is imprisoned in 4 ranges:

- The first range is the line of bullish channel and the support line. Two lines shape a wedge. Price converges in this wedge. It tries to enter the bullish channel last week but unsuccessful.

-The second range is 38.2% Fib line and 50% Fib line.

-The third range is between Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen. Kijun Sen is resistance level and Tenkan Sen is support level, you can see on the chart.

- The fourth range is Ichimoku Cloud. Price once lies in the cloud, is very hard to predict. It fluctuates very strong and tries to escape the cloud It looks like the plane is in the typhoon. You can see the fluctuation of E/U in the chart.

It's hard to anticipate the direction of price when it is captured in those ranges.

I don't know how to open the trade in this moment.

If you try to open a trade now, be careful. Very careful.

I choose the solution is waiting. I am waiting until EU economic data is released,and price escapes from at least one of above ranges.

Fundamental Analysis:

This week, I concentrate in following events:

- Unemployent Rate of Germany.
- CPI of Germany.
Both are released on Thursday.
Recent economic data of Germany is very positive. Germany economy is very stable opposite the rest of EZ. While ECB has to lower interest rate to support their weak economy and deflation, Germany economy grows very well. I think Unemplyment rate and CPI of Germany will be positive for E/Z, which means raise up E/U.

But don' forget Consumer Confindence and Business Climate data of EZ are also released the same day, and I think it's negative for E/U

Positive data of Germany and Negative data of EZ. It's hard to open a trade with such opposite infomation.

If Positive data of Germany accompany with positive data of EZ.E/U will rises up to 1.365 level.

If negative data of Germany accompany with negative data of EZ. E/U will fall down to 1.342 level.

In my opinion, I believe in positive data of Germany and Negative data of EZ, and everything is solved on Friday when CPI of EZ is announced.

The reason why ECB lowered the interest rate is the fear of deflation despite they avoided to talk about deflation. If CPI of EZ is lower than expect, the ghost of deflation is gradually more visible. And E/U pair will fall sharply to 1.33 key support level.

The last one , the amount of LONG position of E/U pair is now reducing, and the SHORT position amount is increasing. Investors gradually abandon LONG position. They choose SHORT position for E/U.

But don't forget economic data of USA. Consumer Confidence and Durable Good Orders.

In USA, traders should not forget four things:

- US stocks rally greatly due to QE3. marketwatch.com/investing/index/DJIA/charts?chartType=interactive&countryCode=US

- Today Nasdaq broke 4000 level. marketwatch.com/story/putting-nasdaq-4000-in-perspective-2013-11-25

- Dollar Index has tendency higher. The US dollar is being stronger. marketwatch.com/investing/Index/DXY

-US 10 years T-Bond is being higher. marketwatch.com/investing/Bond/TMUBMUSD10Y?countrycode=BX

Those data prove that investor is buying dollar to invest T-Bond and Stock.This will drag the Greenback higher cause the pressure on E/U to fall down.

In my opinion, I think E/U will sell off to 1.33 level. Bearish trend.

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