Our take on the EUR...

9 Mac 2016

As can be seen on the H4 chart this morning, the EUR aggressively bounced from the mid-level number 1.0950 going into the U.S. session yesterday with little fundamental data backing this move. Consequent to this, price has chalked up a consolidation zone fixed between 1.0950 and 1.1043 ahead of the ECB press conference today at 1.30 pm GMT.

From a technical standpoint, we can see uncertainty around weekly support at 1.0983, whilst on the daily chart price bounced from support at 1.0955 but failed to close higher than its prior close. On the H4 chart, there is a good chance that the current range will remain intact ahead of the ECB meeting, but we’re expecting to see a break once Draghi takes the stage.

Beyond this range, here are the levels we have our eyes on today (due to possible volatility, each barrier requires confirmation from the lower timeframes before a trade can be taken):

• H4 resistance at 1.0959, which has fantastic history.
• H4 supply at 1.1121-1.1103. This area has strong momentum and is located just above the 1.1100 figure. In addition, it is also bolstered by a daily resistance chalked up at 1.1122.

• H4 demand at 1.0903-1.0928 – sits just above daily demand at 1.0809-1.0886 and also surrounds the 1.0900 figure.
• H4 Quasimodo area at 1.0809-1.0826 which sits deep within the extremes of the above said daily demand zone.