EUR/USD forecast 30-3 December 2015
Sell EUR/USD highs
Recently
It could be said that last week was a messy one probably due to US holiday. With EUR/USD trading within a range of 150 pips, data that came out during the week weren't strong enough for the major pair to make a breakout in any direction. Moreover, we saw some strength in all the Euro pairs being bidded early in the morning on Friday.
There's been a speculation in the markets since the start of the last week that ECB may extend the duration of QE and make purchases of bonds and other stuff even larger or on the other hand it may lower the interest rate charging commercial banks for parking money at ECB's account.
Fears are emerging that a further cut in the ECB’s deposit rate of 0.2 percentage points could squeeze the net profits of European banks by 6%, according to Autonomous Research.
Ahead
EUR/USD short seems a reasonable bet at the moment, however any dovish outcome by ECB on Thursday may already be priced in regarding bonds valuations (1 year DE close to -0.4 already). EU core inflation has been rising recently and may prevent Draghi from any bolder action at the meeting (Euro Area Inflation Rate consensus for November higher 0.2% to 0.3%). We will see.
Recently
It could be said that last week was a messy one probably due to US holiday. With EUR/USD trading within a range of 150 pips, data that came out during the week weren't strong enough for the major pair to make a breakout in any direction. Moreover, we saw some strength in all the Euro pairs being bidded early in the morning on Friday.
There's been a speculation in the markets since the start of the last week that ECB may extend the duration of QE and make purchases of bonds and other stuff even larger or on the other hand it may lower the interest rate charging commercial banks for parking money at ECB's account.
Fears are emerging that a further cut in the ECB’s deposit rate of 0.2 percentage points could squeeze the net profits of European banks by 6%, according to Autonomous Research.
Ahead
EUR/USD short seems a reasonable bet at the moment, however any dovish outcome by ECB on Thursday may already be priced in regarding bonds valuations (1 year DE close to -0.4 already). EU core inflation has been rising recently and may prevent Draghi from any bolder action at the meeting (Euro Area Inflation Rate consensus for November higher 0.2% to 0.3%). We will see.
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