12/8/25 Bulls Need Follow-through Buying

1. Monday’s candlestick (Aug 11) was a big bull bar closing near its high.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears could create strong bear bars trading far below the 20-day EMA, or if the market would trade slightly lower, but lack follow-through selling (again), followed by a reversal above the 20-day EMA in the next few days instead.
   
3. The market formed a strong rally and retested the July 24 high.
   
4. The bulls want a retest of the July 24 high, followed by a strong breakout above and another strong leg up that lasts for several weeks.
   
5. They need to create follow-through buying over the next few days to increase the odds of another leg up.
   
6. The bears were unable to create follow-through selling in the last four selloff attempts (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22). August 4 was the case again.
   
7. They want the market to form a double top (vs Jul 24) and a failed breakout.
   
8. They want the move to lack follow-through buying, forming bear bars.
   
9. Production for August may be flat or down.
   
10. Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently.
    
11. Export: August export up 23% in the first 10 days.
    
12. The market formed a retest of the July 24 high. The buying pressure remains stronger (tight bull channel, strong bull bars) compared to the weaker selling pressure (no follow-through selling).
    
13. For tomorrow (Tuesday, Aug 12), traders will see if the bulls can create follow-through buying, even if it is only a bull doji. If the bulls can create strong follow-through buying over the next few days, the odds of another strong leg up increase.
    
14. Or will the bears be able to create a failed breakout, closing the candlestick as a strong bear bar instead?
    

Andrew