3/9/25 Bulls Need Follow-Through Buying

1. Monday’s candlestick (Sept 2) was a bull bar closing near its high.
   
2. In our last report, we stated that traders would assess whether the bears could create follow-through selling or if the market would reverse sharply, creating a bear trap.
   
3. The market gapped up and closed higher above the 20-day EMA. The bears were unable to create follow-through selling.
   
4. The bulls want the 20-day EMA and the bull trend line to act as support, and the pullback to be weak and sideways, lacking follow-through selling, as has been the case with all recent pullbacks (Jul 1 and Aug 4).
   
5. They want it to form a higher low followed by a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (Aug 21 and Aug 29).
   
6. They hope Friday's candlestick will become a bear trap. They need to create follow-through buying to increase the odds of a retest and a breakout above the August high.
   
7. The bears want a reversal from a wedge pattern (June 20, July 24, and August 19), and a large double top bar flag with the February high.
   
8. They need to create strong follow-through selling, trading below the 20-day EMA and the bear trend line to increase the odds of a sustained move.
   
9. If the market trades higher, they want it to form a lower high or a double top.
   
10. Production for Sept should be flat or down.
    
11. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent.
    
12. Export: August export up 10%.
    
13. So far, the recent sideways to down pullback has formed a higher low. There was no follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA.
    
14. For tomorrow (Wednesday, Sept 3), traders will see if the bulls can create strong follow-through buying. If they can, the odds of a retest near the August high will increase.
    
15. Or will the market trade slightly higher, but close with a long tail above or a bear body instead?
    

Andrew